March 10, 2018
Summary: A large area of light rain is currently moving over the coastal mountains and will overspread the valley over the next few hours. There are two areas of moisture moving in from the southwest. The first is an atmospheric river of air headed towards northern Baja and southern California. The other is further north and is coming on shore from Santa Barbara on the south to Santa Cruz on the north. The rain extends 300 miles west of the central coast.
Radar is indicating that this precipitation is light. We may receive no more than a quarter to a third of an inch, possibly less in some locations. The rain will end probably during the early morning hours Sunday with dry weather moving back into the picture Sunday and Monday.
From Tuesday on, there will be a chance of rain mainly north of Kern County. Next Thursday night through Saturday, a strong low pressure system shows up on models off the northern California coast. It’s projected to drift southward Friday and Saturday. This storm, if it lives up to model predictions, may bring heavier precipitation during this time frame. The low itself will move slowly down the northern California coast and should be off the coast of San Francisco by Thursday night. The other element of this storm will be the potential for wind as models continue to indicate there will be significant differences in pressure between the north coast and southern California. More on this in the wind discussion below.
The system coming in Thursday through Saturday has its origins in the Gulf of Alaska, so snow levels will drop dramatically, possibly down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet by Saturday.
Forecast: Rain tonight, possibly ending during the early morning hours. Partly cloudy Sunday through Monday night. There will be a chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will again become likely Thursday through Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 52/70/49/74 | Reedley 53/71/50/73 | Dinuba 49/72/50/73 | |
Porterville 51/73/51/74 | Lindsay 49/72/49/74 | Delano 52/72/50/74 | |
Bakersfield 53/74/53/76 | Arvin 52/73/50/75 | Taft 54/74/53/74 | |
Lamont 52/73/51/76 | Pixley 51/73/50/74 | Tulare 49/71/49/72 | |
Woodlake 50/72/50/74 | Hanford 51/72/50/74 | Orosi 49/72/49/74 |
Winds: Winds will be generally light through Wednesday. There’s an interesting configuration showing up on models for Thursday and Friday. By Friday morning, a strong low will be just off the northern California coast. It will slowly sink southward, increasing the difference in pressure between the north coast and southern California. This pattern is typical for a strong wind event in Kern County and, to a lesser extent, along the west side. I’m not ready to predict potential velocity, but just wanted you to be aware that this configuration is showing up.
Rain: A wide area of rain is now moving over the coastal mountains and into the west side of the valley. The precipitation shield extends from Santa Cruz on the north to Santa Barbara on the south. This will lead to a steady light rain tonight, possibly ending during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts will not be dramatic. Right now, I feel most locations will receive between .20 and .30. Sunday and Monday appear dry, then we get into the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame where there will be a chance of rain as ripples of low pressure move in from the west underneath a big low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This storm will probably skirt the coast with potentially significant amounts of rain on the valley floor, but especially in the mountains. This storm will be a very slow mover, so the chance of rain will extend into Saturday. Models for next week also look wet with low pressure systems moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and towards California from time to time.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Next report: Sunday, March 11