March 12, 2018
Summary: We have a temporary ridge of upper level high pressure above us today which will drive most locations into at least the mid 70s if not higher. In the meantime, over the Pacific Ocean is a huge low pressure system which is shifting eastward. Low pressure will begin to center itself just off the coast of Oregon and northern California. To our southwest is a huge plume of subtropical moisture which will become entrained along the bottom side of the low. This will effectively spread precipitation over the area, especially north of Kern County from late tonight through Tuesday night. It will not be raining all the time, but periods of rain can be expected. The trough will move eastward Wednesday. With it will be more precipitation on and off Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A new storm system will drop southward along the Oregon/northern California coast Thursday. This system is colder with its origins in the Gulf of Alaska. This will be a great week for increasing the snow pack along the Sierra Nevada. Between Tuesday and Tuesday night, as much as two feet could accumulate over the higher elevations with significant amounts of snow Thursday through Saturday.
The chance of precipitation will continue on and off through Saturday before a weak ridge finally moves in from the eastern Pacific Sunday and Monday of next week. Medium range models, however, show a colder pattern with weather systems sliding southward from the eastern Gulf of Alaska and down the west coast. This should provide precipitation next week, as well. The timing of all these storms is difficult to discern as waves of rain develop over the Pacific Ocean then move inland.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today. Increasing cloudiness later tonight with a chance of rain late tonight. Periods of rain are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Periods of rain will continue at times Thursday through Saturday. Becoming partly cloudy Saturday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 75/54/69/47/64 | Reedley 75/55/69/49/65 | Dinuba 74/54/68/49/63 | |
| Porterville 76/55/70/49/65 | Lindsay 76/54/71/49/64 | Delano 76/55/71/50/65 | |
| Bakersfield 77/57/72/52/65 | Arvin 78/54/72/52/66 | Taft 78/57/72/52/66 | |
| Lamont 78/55/73/52/65 | Pixley 76/54/72/50/64 | Tulare 75/53/70/50/63 | |
| Woodlake 75/54/70/49/65 | Hanford 76/54/70/50/65 | Orosi 74/54/70/49/64 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Rain likely 46/65 |
Friday
Rain likely 45/63 |
Saturday
Chance of rain 42/62 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 41/64 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 43/66 |
Two Week Outlook: March 19 through March 25: The two week model continues to indicate temperatures will be below average during this time frame. It also appears the chance of rain will be better than average during this period.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH today and tonight. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 20 MPH.
Rain: This may be the only dry day of the week. A massive low pressure system will eventually park off the Oregon/northern California coast Tuesday. This system will be joined by subtropical moisture for the possibility of rain as early as late tonight. The trough will not move much through Wednesday, resulting in a chance of rain at any given time through mid week. Thursday and Friday may be the wettest days in this series as a colder trough of low pressure moves southward into California. Rain is likely Thursday and Friday with a chance of showers continuing through Saturday. It appears there will be a dry stretch between Sunday and Tuesday, but if models have a grip on this situation, cold storms will again drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California about the middle of next week or so.
Rainfall amounts this week may very well turn out to be significant. North of Kern County, one to two inches is possible with possibly as much as a half to three quarters of an inch in Kern County. This will be a good week to ramp up the snow pack as just this first system alone could drop as much as two feet from Kings Canyon northward with periods of heavy snow Wednesday and potentially all the way through Saturday.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s Kern: Low to mid 50s
Humidity: Visalia: 60%/95% Bakersfield: 60%/95%
Actual Humidity March 10, 2018: Delano, 92%/54%, Porterville, 96%/41%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0% tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 10, 2018: Stratford .78, Parlier .68, Blackwell .85 Lindcove .71, Arvin .80, Orange Cove .77, Porterville .72, Delano .72, Madera Two .72. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 55, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 54, Delano 54, Madera Two 54
Record Temperatures: 86/30. Average Temperatures: 67/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1779, -485 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for March so far, 53.8.7 -0.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 3.23 season. or -5.17. Month to Date: 1.33
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.71, or -3.07, Month to Date: .39
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:15 am Sunset: 7:04 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:46
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 71 / 44 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 70 / 48 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 69 / 43 / 0.08 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 70 / 41 / 0.11 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 67 / 55 / 0.14 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 68 / 44 / 0.08 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1639 / 70 / 44 / 0.17 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 67 / 50 / 0.20 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 62 / 51 / 0.51 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON T 5.60 51 17.89 164 10.88 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.45 45 14.09 142 9.92 13.11
MERCED 0.00 3.82 41 13.51 144 9.39 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.29 36 13.19 143 9.22 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.23 38 12.87 152 8.48 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.60 34 9.21 120 7.68 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.71 35 7.29 151 4.83 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 5 7.81 208 3.76 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.59 36 14.79 149 9.91 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.55 45 14.63 145 10.07 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.97 27 16.22 149 10.89 13.95
Next Report: Monday, March 12/PM