March 11, 2018
Summary: Best dynamics from last night’s storm went through Kern County where fairly heavy precipitation occurred. Arvin, for example, recorded .45 while most other locations were below a quarter of an inch. This system moved quickly off to the east. Now we have a weak ridge which will control our weather today through Monday. There are considerable areas of low clouds and even some ground fog in some areas due to the moist subtropical air mass which is now on the valley floor. These clouds will be slow to burn off but by midday most of the fog should be gone.
Monday night is when the next big change begins to occur. A cold, deep trough of low pressure will sink southward to off the northern California coast Tuesday. This storm will pinwheel bands of energy in from time to time with periods of showers, especially north of Kern County. By Thursday and Friday, this low should be a bit further south, which means a greater possibility of precipitation for the south valley. The trough will remain along the west coast through Saturday before finally moving inland for a dry couple of days Sunday through Tuesday of next week.
Medium range models are suggesting a new trough of low pressure will dig southward from the Gulf of Alaska for more precipitation beginning about the middle of next week.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning with areas of fog. Partly cloudy this afternoon through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night with periods of rain at times Tuesday through Wednesday. Rain will be likely Thursday through Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/51/74/53/70 | Reedley 72/52/75/53/69 | Dinuba 69/51/74/51/68 | |
| Porterville 73/52/76/53/73 | Lindsay 72/51/76/53/69 | Delano 73/51/77/51/70 | |
| Bakersfield 73/55/78/55/74 | Arvin 74/54/80/56/75 | Taft 72/55/79/56/75 | |
| Lamont 73/53/79/55/75 | Pixley 73/51/77/51/69 | Tulare 71/50/75/52/69 | |
| Woodlake 72/50/76/51/68 | Hanford 72/50/77/51/69 | Orosi 72/50/77/51/70 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH through Monday night. Winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH Tuesday and 10 to 20 MPH Wednesday. We are still watching for possible configurations for Thursday through Friday. The placement of a strong surface low off the northern California coast will be critical. If that is where the low finally parks, there will be a strong difference in pressure between the north coast and southern California. Theoretically, this could result in some strong winds in the south valley. The models this morning indicate these winds will be less likely than had been projected yesterday, but this is still up for grabs.
Rain: The following are a few rainfall amounts from last night’s storm. Stratford .13, Blackwell .13, Lindcove .15, Arvin .45, Orange Cove .02, Porterville .18, and Delano .13.
We have at least 48 hours of dry weather for today through Monday evening. Later Monday night, clouds will be increasing ahead of a developing trough sinking southward from the Gulf of Alaska. The low for Tuesday and Wednesday will center just off the northwest California coast. Bands of energy will rotate counterclockwise around this storm, resulting in periods of precipitation from time to time, especially north of Kern County. From Thursday through Saturday, there is the likelihood of precipitation as the low finally sinks further south. This will be our best shot at significant precipitation and heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada. The upper winds will become perpendicular to the Sierra so several feet of new snow certainly can’t be ruled out. Dry weather will return Saturday night through about Tuesday but models show a new trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska, indicating it will move southward along the west coast for the possibility of more precipitation beginning late Wednesday.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Next report: Monday, March 12