March 13, 2018
Summary: The precipitation so far today has been fairly scattered and light. There is a cold front stretched across north/central California this afternoon. To illustrate this, the freezing level earlier this morning over Oakland had dropped 6,300 feet while at Vandenberg the freezing level was just under 10,000 feet. Obviously, there is a line of demarcation between the two. Doppler radar is not really indicating any areas of heavy precipitation with the exception of the high Sierra.
Rain will overspread the valley tonight as the front slowly moves east/southeast across the area. There seems to be somewhat of a detachment between the deep moisture feed and the main trough which is still off shore. Showers are likely Wednesday, but we may actually receive a break in the action Wednesday night and Thursday morning, although showers cannot be ruled out. As one trough moves eastward, it will be replaced by another colder system with snow levels dropping down to perhaps 5,000 feet or so.
By Thursday afternoon, this trough will be just off shore, spreading more precipitation across central California in the form of hopefully significant precipitation on the valley floor and heavy amounts of snow over the Sierra Nevada. This trough will take its sweet time moving through so it is possible active weather may continue into Saturday morning. There could be the development of isolated thunderstorms any afternoon this week in areas with breaks in the overcast to at least some extent. This has a tendency to volatize the atmosphere even more. Small hail and localized heavy rain would be the two main impacts of these thunderstorms.
There appears to be a break in the action Saturday afternoon through Monday. For the second model run in a row, a strong Pacific storm is shown off the central coast by late Monday night. It will slowly move southward, eventually moving in through southern California by Thursday. This would renew the chance of rain by Monday night with active weather continuing Tuesday through Wednesday. Beyond that, models continue to favor Pacific storms moving into northern and central California from time to time as the evolution of all these systems takes place. Timing is impossible to determine at this point, but whatever the timing, these blessings seem to want to continue for a while.
Forecast: Periods of rain tonight. Periods of showers Wednesday, tapering off for a while Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Periods of rain again Thursday afternoon through early Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night with an increasing chance of rain Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 47/62/40/61 | Reedley 48/63/41/61 | Dinuba 46/61/42/61 | |
| Porterville 46/63/41/62 | Lindsay 46/63/41/61 | Delano 49/63/43/62 | |
| Bakersfield 50/64/44/62 | Arvin 49/65/42/62 | Taft 52/65/44/63 | |
| Lamont 50/63/43/62 | Pixley 46/62/41/62 | Tulare 45/61/40/61 | |
| Woodlake 47/62/40/61 | Hanford 48/63/41/61 | Orosi 46/61/41/61 | |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times through Saturday with local gusts to 25 MPH tonight and again Thursday and Friday.
Rain: Just light, scattered precipitation is occurring over the valley this afternoon. It wouldn’t be a total shock if an isolated thunderstorm or two developed, especially if we get some breaks in the overcast. A cold front is just to our northwest and will move slowly down the valley tonight, ushering in colder air and periods of precipitation. Showers can be expected Wednesday as waves of energy move from northwest to southeast across the area. We may get a break in the precip Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but it will be very temporary as the newest trough of low pressure will move on shore later Thursday. Rain will continue on and off through possibly Saturday morning. Isolated thunderstorms could occur on just about any afternoon and evening in the considerably colder and unstable air masses which will be moving on shore from time to time. The second model run in a row is indicating there will be a short period of dry weather from Saturday afternoon through Monday. But also for the second run in a row, models are placing a possibly intense low pressure system about 200 miles to the west of the central coast. If these models verify, precipitation will again become likely. Models going out all the way through the 27th are still telling me that the chance of rain later in the month is higher than usual with below average temperatures.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Next report: Wednesday, March 14