March 14, 2018
Summary: There are light scattered showers throughout central California this morning. The Sierra Nevada is a notable exception as lift from a southwesterly flow aloft continues to keep precipitation going over the higher elevations, some of it locally heavy at times. The snow level in the Sierra Nevada is somewhere near 7,000 feet.
The next and colder weather system is moving quickly southeastward and will spread precipitation into Fresno County possibly as early as midday with periods of rain over the remainder of the valley this afternoon into tonight, possibly locally heavy at times. Snow levels will drop down to around 4,000 feet, possibly a bit lower in heavier showers.
Satellite imagery this morning is quite interesting. It shows one system getting ready to move on shore while the next one sits off the British Columbia coast but will move out of the trough of low pressure and into California Thursday night with periods of precipitation Friday through Saturday. This will be the coldest storm yet with snow levels down to 3,000 feet. We will get a short break Thursday as there is somewhat of a gap between the storm now moving on shore and the one off the British Columbia coast.
Dry weather will return Sunday through Monday as a weak ridge builds in from the west. For the third day in a row, models show a low pressure system moving to just off the central coast Tuesday and Wednesday. The potential for additional precipitation appears pretty high at the moment. This system could also generate some strong winds over portions of the valley as big differences in pressure set up between the off shore low and Nevada.
The two week model continues to indicate a high potential for more rain down the road with below average temperatures continuing.
Forecast: Scattered light showers possible this morning with periods of rain this afternoon and a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms that do develop would be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Periods of rain continuing tonight, becoming mostly cloudy Thursday with a chance of rain by evening. Periods of showers Friday through Saturday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Partly cloudy Saturday night through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night with an increasing chance of rain both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/40/62/39/60 | Reedley 62/42/62/41/61 | Dinuba 61/40/62/41/62 | |
| Porterville 64/42/62/41/62 | Lindsay 63/40/62/39/62 | Delano 65/43/62/41/61 | |
| Bakersfield 65/45/63/44/64 | Arvin 67/44/62/43/63 | Taft 66/45/62/44/63 | |
| Lamont 65/43/62/43/64 | Pixley 64/43/62/42/63 | Tulare 62/40/62/40/61 | |
| Woodlake 63/40/62/40/61 | Hanford 62/42/62/40/60 | Orosi 63/40/62/39/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Periods of showers 44/61 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 35/62 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 38/66 |
Tuesday
Periods of rain 45/65 |
Wednesday
Periods of rain 48/69 |
Two Week Outlook: March 21 through March 27: The two week model continues to indicate temperatures will be below average during this time frame. It also appears the chance of rain will be better than average during this period.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County northward, today. Winds tonight will be out of the west at 10 to 15 MPH, continuing Thursday. Winds Friday and Saturday will range between 10 and 15 MPH with local gusts to near 25. Looking down the road to Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, current surface models are set up such as to generate some potentially strong winds in Kern County and up the west side. There is still plenty of time for this configuration to change on models, but for now we’ll just call for a chance of strong, gusty winds for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday of next week.
Rain: Just scattered light showers in central California this morning. That will change during the late morning and early afternoon hours as the next cold upper low moves southeastward into northern and central California. With some breaks in the overcast possible this afternoon, we could see the development of isolated thunderstorms. If they do occur, they would be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Rainfall amounts between now and Thursday morning should range between .20 and .40 with locally more under thunderstorms.
We will have a dry slot, though it may be brief, Thursday. But the chance of precipitation will begin to rapidly increase by Thursday evening with periods of showers Thursday night through Saturday. Again, the cold unstable air moving in aloft could aid in the development of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoons.
Dry weather will commence Sunday through Monday, but it looks like clouds will begin to increase Monday night with an increasing chance of rain again Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be a milder system and could produce some significant rainfall amounts. However, this is about a week away so we’ll need to tweak the forecast. There is a definite trend on models, though. Models also continue to point to the possibility of additional rain late next week and into the following week.
Frost: There will be a break between storms Sunday and Monday of next week. The system that will bring rain Saturday will have moved eastward. The air associated with this system is cold, so there will be a chance of low to mid 30s Sunday and Monday mornings. However, there may also be plenty of upslope clouds left behind and, with a soaking wet valley floor, I don’t foresee anything serious. More clouds and rain will arrive Tuesday through Thursday, maintaining above freezing conditions.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 60%/95% Bakersfield: 45%/90%
Actual Humidity March 12, 2018: Delano, 92%/36%, Porterville, 97%/39%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 12, 2018: Stratford .82, Parlier .71, Blackwell .86 Lindcove .71, Arvin .78, Orange Cove .77, Porterville .71, Delano .75, Madera Two .76. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 57, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 57, Delano 57, Madera Two 55
Record Temperatures: 85/31. Average Temperatures: 67/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1790, -494 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for March so far, 54.7 +0.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 3.25 season. or -5.30. Month to Date: 1.35
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.71, or -3.16, Month to Date: .39
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 7:05 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:49
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 73 / 60 / 0.12 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 60 / 0.04 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 75 / 57 / 0.07 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 75 / 57 / 0.16 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 77 / 58 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 73 / 57 / 0.02 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1646 / 67 / 58 / 0.02 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 76 / 54 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 75 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 50 / 0.12 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.17 5.79 52 17.89 162 11.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.19 4.64 46 14.09 140 10.07 13.11
MERCED 0.09 3.97 42 13.51 142 9.53 12.50
MADERA 0.11 3.41 37 13.19 141 9.33 12.02
FRESNO 0.02 3.27 38 12.87 149 8.63 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 2.67 34 9.21 118 7.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 1.72 35 7.29 148 4.92 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 5 7.81 206 3.80 5.18
SALINAS 0.05 3.67 36 14.79 147 10.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.25 4.83 47 14.63 143 10.26 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.06 3.03 27 16.22 146 11.08 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday, March 14/pm