March 15, 2018
Summary: Showers of rain and snow are still occurring in the Tulare County portion of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains due to upsloping. This will continue to generate showers in those areas for the next few hours. Currently, skies are mostly clear north of Kern County up until you get to Stockton when the leading edge of the next weather maker becomes apparent. The big trough of low pressure which has been off the coast this week will begin to sag southward, allowing more waves of energy…or waves of low pressure…to move inland from time to time beginning tonight and probably lasting well into Saturday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, mainly Friday afternoon, as the air becomes progressively colder and more unstable.
As this system moves slowly inland over the next 72 hours, heavy snow will again accumulate over the Sierra Nevada with moderate to heavy rain over the foothills. On the valley floor, there will be periods of showers during this entire time frame interspersed with short episodes of dry weather.
Upper level high pressure will begin to nose in behind this system Sunday and will take over the reins for a few days. Different configurations continue to show up on various models for what appears to be a very large and much milder low pressure system expected to move in by Tuesday evening. This will also be a slow mover and will have the chance of producing significant amounts of precipitation, especially over the Sierra Nevada. There will be stiff differences in pressure between the coast and the interior which may spawn some strong, gusty winds in the south valley. This is always a tricky call, so for now we’ll go 50/50 on this possibility.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of next week look dry as upper level high pressure takes over, but the two week model continues to insist on a pattern which would result in an above average chance of more rain and below average temperatures.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through early afternoon. Increasing clouds later this afternoon and evening. Showers likely tonight, especially after midnight and continuing on and off through Saturday morning. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon and night. Becoming mostly clear Sunday night through Monday night. Increasing clouds Tuesday leading to a chance of rain during the afternoon. Periods of rain will become likely late Tuesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/43/59/38/59 | Reedley 61/42/60/39/58 | Dinuba 59/42/60/38/59 | |
| Porterville 61/42/60/40/60 | Lindsay 61/41/61/38/59 | Delano 62/43/62/42/60 | |
| Bakersfield 59/44/62/41/60 | Arvin 59/44/63/43/59 | Taft 62/45/62/43/60 | |
| Lamont 60/43/62/40/58 | Pixley 60/42/60/38/59 | Tulare 59/42/59/38/59 | |
| Woodlake 60/43/60/39/58 | Hanford 60/42/60/38/58 | Orosi 61/42/60/39/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 34/63 |
Monday
Mostly clear 37/65 |
Tuesday
PM showers possible 44/71 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 50/70 |
Thursday
Showers likely 52/70 |
Two Week Outlook: March 22 through March 28: The two week model continues to indicate temperatures will be below average during this time frame. It also appears the chance of rain will be better than average during this period.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds this morning will be generally light then will be out of the south to southeast at 10 to 15 MPH at times later this afternoon through Friday. Winds Friday night and Saturday will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with light winds returning Saturday night and Sunday. We’re still looking at the middle of next week for the possibility of strong, gusty winds, especially along the west side and in Kern County. Some of this morning’s models show a reduced chance, but nevertheless we’ll keep a wary eye on things.
Rain: Expect dry weather for the remainder of the day then showers will begin to move in from the west/northwest this evening, spreading over the entire valley later tonight. There will be periods of showers at times Friday through at least Saturday morning. Dry weather will return later Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning. A new and warmer storm will then approach from the northwest for the increasing likelihood of rain Tuesday afternoon and at times through Thursday. Dry weather will return next Friday, lasting through the weekend.
Frost: I am still looking at Sunday and Monday for the potential for local frost. The air mass behind the next storm system is quite cold and we could see many locations in the low to mid 30s Sunday morning and possibly Monday morning, as well. There is a slight chance of upper 20s for short durations, but only in those historic cold spots. After Monday morning, increasing clouds and a considerably warmer air mass will take over for above freezing conditions for the remainder of next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s Kern: Mid to upper 30s
Humidity: Visalia: 40%/95% Bakersfield: 40%/80%
Actual Humidity March 13, 2018: Delano, 91%/58%, Porterville, 95%/61%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 13, 2018: Stratford .82, Parlier .66, Blackwell .84 Lindcove .68, Arvin .69, Orange Cove .72, Porterville .68, Delano .75, Madera Two .71. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 58, Blackwell 59, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 58, Delano 58, Madera Two 56
Record Temperatures: 88/29. Average Temperatures: 67/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1790, -504 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for March so far, 55.5 +1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 3.33 season. or -5.30. Month to Date: 1.43
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.85, or -3.07, Month to Date: .53
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 7:06 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 61 / 47 / 0.20 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 62 / 50 / 0.06 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 65 / 46 / 0.06 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 64 / 44 / 0.03 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 64 / 54 / 0.22 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 63 / 49 / 0.08 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1648 / 61 / 45 / 0.03 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 64 / 48 / 0.10 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 62 / 50 / 0.02 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.28 6.25 56 17.89 161 11.12 14.06
MODESTO T 4.84 48 14.09 139 10.14 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.10 43 13.51 141 9.60 12.50
MADERA T 3.61 38 13.19 140 9.39 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.33 38 12.87 148 8.70 11.50
HANFORD 0.06 2.73 35 9.21 118 7.83 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.09 1.94 39 7.29 147 4.96 6.47
BISHOP T 0.20 5 7.81 205 3.81 5.18
SALINAS 0.02 3.70 36 14.79 146 10.15 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.08 4.91 47 14.63 141 10.36 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.06 3.10 28 16.22 145 11.18 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, March 15/pm