March 14, 2018
Summary: Isolated thunderstorms are currently breaking out in Kings and Kern Counties with an isolated storm also showing up near Mendota in Fresno County. This activity is no surprise as cold, unstable air associated with the latest trough of low pressure to move inland is now taking control. The showers and thunderstorms will end later this evening with a dry period of time showing up after midnight and lasting through most of the day Thursday. The main big trough of low pressure remains over the west coast with the next disturbance spreading showers over northern California Thursday and into central California Thursday night and at times through Saturday. This system will be the coldest in this series, lowering snow levels down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Any breaks in the overcast Friday and Saturday afternoons may be the trigger for additional isolated thunderstorms.
Showers will begin to taper off Saturday night with another short period of dry weather Sunday through Monday as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in behind the exiting low. By Monday night, clouds will begin to increase again ahead of the next low pressure system which will be a great deal milder. It might even have a tropical connection.
Some models this afternoon place the low a bit further off shore Tuesday, but indicate it may move inland Wednesday into Thursday. The configuration is a bit less intense as far as winds are concerned, but strong, gusty winds will still be a possibility late Monday night through Wednesday.
Beyond Thursday of next week, it’s possible a cold storm could slide southward into California. Some models, though, show it sliding into the Great Basin with California on the far eastern edge of upper level high pressure off shore. For now, I’m going to go with a chance of precipitation from time to time late next week and into the following week with below average temperatures.
Forecast: Periods of showers before midnight with isolated thunderstorms accompanied by small hail and localized heavy rain through the evening. Mostly to partly cloudy after midnight with partly cloudy skies Thursday morning. Clouds will begin to increase again by Thursday afternoon with periods of showers Thursday night through Saturday. A chance of showers Saturday evening, otherwise mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy Sunday through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night with periods of rain again Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 40/62/39/61 | Reedley 42/62/39/61 | Dinuba 40/61/39/61 | |
| Porterville 40/63/40/62 | Lindsay 39/62/38/61 | Delano 43/62/41/61 | |
| Bakersfield 44/63/45/63 | Arvin 43/63/44/64 | Taft 45/62/46/63 | |
| Lamont 43/63/44/63 | Pixley 41/62/41/62 | Tulare 41/61/42/62 | |
| Woodlake 41/62/42/61 | Hanford 41/63/42/62 | Orosi 39/61/41/61 | |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west or northwest tonight at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds Thursday will be generally less than 12 MPH then winds will be mainly out of the south at 10 to 20 MPH late Thursday through Saturday with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: There is quite a bit of mainly light shower activity over the valley this afternoon with some notable exceptions. Scattered thunderstorms are breaking out over Kings, Kern, Tulare, and Fresno Counties. These storms may become more widespread over the next couple of hours then end after sunset. It appears most of the shower activity should be over by midnight with dry weather for Thursday. Rain may reach as far south as Fresno County by Thursday evening then spread southward during the course of the night. Periods of showers will continue Friday through Saturday with the possibility of more thunderstorm activity Friday and Saturday afternoons and evenings. Like today, any storms will be accompanied by heavy rain and small hail. Dry weather will return Sunday through Monday. The chance of rain will increase again by late Monday night with periods of rain possible Tuesday through Thursday of next week. This will be a much warmer system as its origins are over the mid Pacific. Models continue to indicate this may very well be a well developed system which could drop significant amounts of rain on the valley floor with heavy snow in the high Sierra, but with high snow levels.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing through Saturday morning. Low to mid 30s are possible Sunday and Monday mornings, depending on how much residual cloud cover remains over the valley floor.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Next report: Thursday, March 15