March 19, 2018
Summary: We have roughly another 36 hours of dry weather before the strongest Pacific storm of this season begins pounding central California. The low which is quite massive is located about 800 miles to our west. Basically, it just hasn’t moved much over the past couple of days. It will begin to move towards the northeast. In the meantime, an atmospheric river of air will develop along the bottom flank of this storm, moving significant amounts of subtropical air in from the west/southwest. Some models indicate the target area for this flow will be from Fresno County on the north to Los Angeles county on the south. In other words, we are the bulls-eye. Models are consistent this morning on very heavy amounts of precipitation along the Sierra Nevada. As much as four to six inches of rain could accumulate along the Sierra from Tulare County northward with heavy amounts of rain also over the Kern County mountains. On the valley floor, possibly one to two inches of rain could fall north of Kern County and between a half and one inch over the valley portion of Kern County. The AR will continue through Wednesday night ahead of a cold front which will move down the valley Thursday. Once the front moves through, the colder sector of the storm will arrive, turning the rain to showers with showers continuing well into Thursday night. The massive storm will finally move off to the east Friday for a return to dry weather. Weak upper level high pressure will dominate over the weekend with a stronger ridge developing over and off the coast next week for dry weather. If the two week model is to be believed, dry weather may last through the end of the month.
Forecast: Mostly clear through this evening. Increasing cloudiness later tonight. Rain will begin to move in from the west/southwest Tuesday afternoon with rain continuing Tuesday night through Wednesday night, locally heavy at times. Showers Thursday and possibly into Thursday night. Becoming partly cloudy Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/45/63/53/66 | Reedley 69/44/63/53/66 | Dinuba 68/46/64/52/65 | |
| Porterville 70/44/64/54/67 | Lindsay 70/44/63/53/67 | Delano 70/48/65/54/67 | |
| Bakersfield 72/54/66/56/68 | Arvin 72/46/66/56/68 | Taft 70/53/66/57/68 | |
| Lamont 70/46/67/57/68 | Pixley 70/45/63/54/67 | Tulare 68/44/63/54/65 | |
| Woodlake 70/45/64/54/66 | Hanford 70/45/63/54/67 | Orosi 69/44/63/53/67 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Showers likely 55/67 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 45/62 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 40/66 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 41/66 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 43/71 |
Two Week Outlook: March 23 through March 29: this model is finally indicating a return to a drier weather pattern. The storm track is projected to migrate further north. Temperatures should range close to seasonal values.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH today then will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH later tonight and Tuesday morning. Winds will increase to 10 to 20 MPH Tuesday night through Wednesday night with stronger gusts. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The storm of the season will be knocking on our doors tonight then will begin to spread rain over the entire region Tuesday. This is no ordinary storm. An intense low pressure system located 800 miles to our west will begin to move northeastward today then form an atmospheric river of air underneath the low aimed right at central and southern California. Significant amounts of subtropical moisture will be transported northeast from the subtropics. This will have the potential of dumping very heavy rain over the Sierra Nevada, possibly as much as four to six inches between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday night. On the valley floor, rain will spread in from the west/southwest Tuesday afternoon, becoming heavy at times Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Rain will turn showery Wednesday night through Thursday night. One to two inches of rain is possible on the valley floor north of Kern County. Even in Kern County, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of one half to one inch totals. Dry weather will finally return Friday, continuing through the weekend and, if models are correct, lasting possibly through the end of the month.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above 32 degrees.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s Kern: Mid to upper 30s
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/95% Bakersfield: 30%/70%
Actual Humidity March 17, 2018: Delano, 72%/59%, Porterville, 98%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 17, 2018: Stratford .83, Parlier .61, Blackwell .78 Lindcove .63, Arvin .65, Orange Cove .64, Porterville .66, Delano .72, Madera Two .66. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 58, Blackwell 60, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 60, Delano 59, Madera Two 57
Record Temperatures: 87/32. Average Temperatures: 68/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1842, -491 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for March so far, 56.4 +0.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 3.82 season. or -5.09. Month to Date: 1.92
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 2.41, or -2.67, Month to Date: .1.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:04 am Sunset: 7:10 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:01
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 59 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 59 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 61 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 60 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 62 / 44 / 0.03 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 59 / 36 / 0.03 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1647 / 58 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 60 / 35 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 59 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.00 6.54 57 17.89 157 11.40 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.02 48 14.09 135 10.42 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.40 45 13.51 137 9.85 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.09 43 13.19 138 9.58 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.82 43 12.87 143 8.97 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.08 38 9.21 115 8.02 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.41 47 7.29 142 5.13 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 5 7.81 201 3.88 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.32 41 14.79 141 10.46 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.16 48 14.63 137 10.70 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.17 27 16.22 141 11.53 13.95
Next Report: Monday, March 19/pm