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Forecast

April 3, 2018/report

April 3, 2018

Summary: High pressure, mainly at the upper levels of the atmosphere, is reestablishing itself over the eastern Pacific and the west coast.  Well above average temperatures and generally clear skies will continue through Wednesday night.  Mid and high level clouds will begin to show up Thursday and Thursday night then will rapidly increase ahead of what will become a major weather event for central California.  For the sixth day in a row now, models have been pointing towards a strong Pacific storm off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and  northern California Thursday night and early Friday.  This system will be extremely warm because of an atmospheric river of air with origins in the tropics.  This AR will slam into our region mainly Friday night through Saturday evening.  Snow levels will be as high as 10,000 feet for much of this event before the cold front finally moves through late Saturday.  Snow levels will come down at that time.

 

Models are indicating as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain could fall in the foothills with possibly more in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.  One inch plus amounts are possible on the valley floor, especially on the east side north of Kern County.  Of course, the main concern in all this will be flooding along rivers and streams of the Sierra Nevada as heavy rain accumulates on top of snow.  By Sunday morning, the low will have moved into the Great Basin, ending the chance of additional precipitation.  Even after this system goes through, temperatures will remain at least marginally above average.

 

The main storm track will be aimed at the Pacific Northwest next week and about the northern one-fourth of California.  By later next week, a strong ridge will have built, ensuring more dry weather.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies today through Wednesday night.  Increasing cloudiness Thursday and Thursday night.  A slight chance of showers Friday morning with rain spreading in from the west Friday afternoon.  Rain at times Friday night through Saturday night, locally heavy at times.  Partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night.  Becoming mostly clear Sunday through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 80/47/79/49/80 Reedley 79/46/79/47/79 Dinuba 78/46/79/49/80
Porterville 81/48/81/49/80 Lindsay 81/46/80/48/80 Delano 81/49/81/50/81
Bakersfield 80/55/81/56/79 Arvin 81/51/82/52/80 Taft 81/58/82/58/80
Lamont 80/54/82/55/80 Pixley 79/48/81/51/80 Tulare 79/47/79/50/79
Woodlake 79/47/80/49/80 Hanford 79/48/80/50/80 Orosi 80/47/80/49/81

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Pm rain

56/75

Saturday

Rain likely

57/72

Sunday

Partly cloudy

45/69

Monday

Mostly clear

45/76

Tuesday

Mostly clear

52/83

 

Two Week Outlook:  April 10 through the 16:  This model indicates the main storm track will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California from time to time with central California being just south of this zone of active weather.  Temperatures should range near to just above seasonal average.

 

March:  Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month.  So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.

 

March, April, May:  The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome.  It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH later mornings and afternoons and less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions nights and early mornings through Friday.

 

Rain:  It appears we will have a  major weather event Friday through Saturday night.  Our old friend, the atmospheric river of air, will be flowing into a Pacific storm which will be moving through the northern half of the state Friday night through Saturday night.  Rain should arrive in central California from the west Friday afternoon with periods of rain Friday night through Saturday night, possibly locally heavy at times, especially north of Kern County.  Rainfall amounts from Friday afternoon through Saturday night could eclipse one inch north of Kern County and especially along the east side of the valley from roughly Porterville northward.  Kern County and, to a lesser extent the west side, will have to deal with a rain shadow, but even along the west side one half inch plus amounts can be expected with possibly as much as a quarter to a half inch in Kern County.  Very heavy rain is expected over the mountains with 2 to 4 inches over the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and locally more over the higher elevations from Tulare County north.  The snow level for much of this event could be as high as 10,000 feet.  This would set up the likelihood of flooding along Sierra Nevada rivers and streams.  In fact, there could be extensive flooding in places like Yosemite Valley Saturday night and early Sunday.  Dry weather will return Sunday and, if models are correct, will last through at least all of next week with the main storm track in the Pacific Northwest and the northern one-fourth of California.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90%  Bakersfield: 25%/75%

Actual Humidity April 1, 2018: Delano, 83%/22%, Porterville, 92%/25%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%  tomorrow 70%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 1, 2018: Stratford 1.33, Parlier 1.10, Blackwell 1.24 Lindcove 1.10, Arvin 1.24, Orange Cove 1.18, Porterville 1.16, Delano 117, Madera Two 1.07.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 65, Blackwell 65, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 66, Delano 68, Madera Two 61

 

Record Temperatures: 87/34. Average Temperatures: 71/45

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 10 +6 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for April so far, 67.0 -9.0

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.09 season. or -3.67.  Month to Date: 4.19

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.73, or -1.87,  Month to Date: 2.41

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:42 am  Sunset: 7:23 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:36

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  75 /  49 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  77 /  54 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  79 /  49 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  80 /  47 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  79 /  55 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  78 /  49 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  74 /  49 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  78 /  46 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1659 /  78 /  58 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  77 /  56 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall Totals:

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.37    60   19.82   162    12.26    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    5.78    52   15.30   137    11.19    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    5.66    53   14.64   138    10.62    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.51    64   13.70   135    10.18    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.09    62   13.66   139     9.80    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.41    51    9.62   112     8.59    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.73    66    7.41   132     5.62     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.82    20    7.89   194     4.07     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.29    47   15.52   137    11.35    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.42    81   15.01   130    11.57    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    5.60    45   16.92   135    12.53    13.95
Next Report: Wednesday, April 4