April 4, 2018
Summary: A considerable amount of high clouds are overrunning a weak ridge of high pressure. This will continue through Thursday. The air aloft remains quite warm for this early in the season with the freezing level at 11,500 feet. Satellite imagery over the Pacific Ocean is quite telling. An intensifying low pressure system well off the northern California coast is developing an atmospheric river of air and will continue to do so as the storm slams northern California late Thursday night and Friday morning. From there, it will spread precipitation down to the Kern County mountains by Friday evening. Northern California will be the target area for this storm, however central California will pick up impressive amounts of precipitation, especially along the Sierra Nevada from roughly Kings Canyon northward. The heaviest precipitation will be over Yosemite which could record between 3 and 6 inches of rain from midday Friday through Saturday evening. One inch totals are possible on the valley floor. This is discussed in the rain summary below.
Flooding will no doubt be an issue along streams and rivers along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. In fact, some models indicate enough precipitation will fall up to 9,000 to 10,000 feet over Yosemite for possible flooding on the valley floor.
As mentioned, this is a very warm storm with the atmospheric river of air extending into the tropics. Even after this system goes through, temperatures will only lower to seasonal values, climbing above Monday and beyond.
The next Pacific storm of note will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some models are actually projecting a legitimate chance of showers from Fresno northward during this time frame. Dry weather will return Wednesday and last indefinitely as the main storm track migrates back into the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today and tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night. A chance of showers by late morning from Fresno County northward with rain spreading down the valley Friday afternoon, reaching Kern County by Friday evening. Periods of rain Friday night through Saturday evening, possibly locally heavy at times north of Kern County. Partly to mostly cloudy later Saturday night and Sunday morning. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night leading to a chance of showers Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly from Fresno County northward. Partly cloudy Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 81/50/80/52/72 | Reedley 82/50/81/53/72 | Dinuba 80/50/80/53/70 | |
| Porterville 82/51/81/54/73 | Lindsay 81/50/81/54/74 | Delano 82/53/80/55/74 | |
| Bakersfield 82/56/81/56/75 | Arvin 83/53/81/55/76 | Taft 82/59/80/58/75 | |
| Lamont 83/53/80/55/75 | Pixley 82/51/80/54/83 | Tulare 80/50/80/53/72 | |
| Woodlake 81/51/80/54/72 | Hanford 81/51/80/54/72 | Orosi 81/51/80/54/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Rain likely 57/70 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 43/72 |
Monday
Mostly clear 45/77 |
Tuesday
Chance of rain 51/78 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 46/76 |
Two Week Outlook: April 11 through the 17: This model indicates the main storm track will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California from time to time with central California being just south of this zone of active weather. Temperatures should range near to just above seasonal average.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be variable in nature and generally less than 12 MPH through Thursday night. From Friday through Saturday, winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible, mainly from Fresno County north.
Rain: There is a small chance of showers as early as sometime Friday morning. After that, the chance of precipitation will increase exponentially from Fresno County north at midday, reaching Kern County by evening. This system is no ordinary storm. It’s very warm. An atmospheric river of air will move in underneath the low and into northern and central California Friday through Saturday evening. Large amounts of precipitation are expected along the Sierra Nevada from Kings Canyon north. Heaviest amounts will be near Yosemite where from 4 to 6 inches cannot be ruled out.
On the valley floor, more than an inch of rain could be measured from mainly northern Tulare County northward, especially along the east side. One-half to three-quarters of an inch cannot be ruled out along the west side, depending on how our friend the rain shadow sets up. Possibly a quarter to a third of an inch could be tallied up in Kern County. These totals are from midday Friday through Saturday evening.
Dry weather will return Saturday night as the low moves into the interior west with dry weather Sunday through Monday night. Some models are increasing the chance of showers for Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly from Fresno County northward. This system would pale in comparison to the Friday/Saturday event. After Tuesday night, the storm track will migrate further north, mainly affecting the Pacific Northwest and the northern ¼ of California.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90% Bakersfield: 25%/75%
Actual Humidity April 2, 2018: Delano, 83%/34%, Porterville, 91%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 2, 2018: Stratford 1.35, Parlier 1.15, Blackwell 1.26 Lindcove 1.11, Arvin 1.29, Orange Cove 1.21, Porterville 1.14, Delano 1.19, Madera Two 1.10. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 65, Blackwell 65, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 65, Delano 68, Madera Two 62
Record Temperatures: 91/33. Average Temperatures: 71/45
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 10 +6 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for April so far, 65.5 -7.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.09 season. or -3.71. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.73, or -1.89, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:40 am Sunset: 7:24 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 80 / 53 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 82 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 81 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 51 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1712 / 79 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 81 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1702 / 79 / 59 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 79 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.00 7.37 60 19.82 161 12.30 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.78 51 15.30 136 11.23 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.66 53 14.64 137 10.66 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.51 64 13.70 134 10.22 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.09 62 13.66 139 9.85 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.41 51 9.62 112 8.61 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.73 66 7.41 131 5.65 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.82 20 7.89 193 4.09 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.29 46 15.52 136 11.40 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.42 81 15.01 129 11.60 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.60 45 16.92 134 12.58 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, April 5