April 7, 2018
Summary: Current radar, as of the time of this writing, was showing significant precipitation along the Sierra Nevada with a large rain shadow on the lee side of the Coast Range. That rain shadow extends into portions of the east valley and has really zapped precipitation amounts throughout the region. Just to our north, from Monterey County extending into the Stockton/Modesto area, is a solid line of moderate to heavy rain associated with the cold front which will be moving down the valley today. Along this front, locally heavy rain could occur, but only for a short time as the main rain band is fairly narrow.
This system will exit to our south by this evening with dry weather returning from Sunday through at least Monday night. The main area that got whacked by the atmospheric river of air was a bit further north than anticipated. The parent low pressure system off the Washington coast was also further north than had been projected. Areas from Santa Rosa northward received 2 to 4 inches of rain while from Tahoe northward precipitation over the past 24 hours totaled 3 to 5 inches with much lighter amounts over the southern Sierra Nevada.
Weak high pressure will take over aloft Sunday through Monday night for a short lived warming trend. This next week will be characterized by low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with disturbances moving from west to east through mainly northern California from time to time beginning Tuesday and lasting through next weekend. The dynamics of each of these systems will be weak over central California so only a minimal chance of precipitation is anticipated from Tuesday through Tuesday night, again Thursday through Thursday night with possibly another one over the weekend.
Temperatures through mid week will rise to above average but then cool off to even below average Thursday and Friday as a cooler air mass spreads in from the northwest. All in all, for April I would consider this an active pattern. At least the northern half of the state will pick up precipitation from time to time which will be good for future water supplies. Even the two week model is indicating there’s a better than even chance of precipitation for the northern half of California.
Forecast: Showers this morning, possibly turning into a period of steady rain later this morning through mid afternoon. Just light showers along the west side and in Kern County. A chance of showers into the evening hours then becoming partly to mostly cloudy later tonight and Sunday morning. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Variable cloudiness Tuesday with a slight chance of showers from Fresno County northward Tuesday and Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. A minimal chance of light showers Thursday and Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday and Friday night with a slight chance of showers from Fresno north Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/46/72/47/78 | Reedley 71/47/72/45/79 | Dinuba 71/45/71/46/78 | |
| Porterville 73/46/72/46/80 | Lindsay 73/46/72/45/80 | Delano 73/48/73/46/79 | |
| Bakersfield 75/50/70/48/81 | Arvin 75/48/71/48/81 | Taft 75/51/70/50/80 | |
| Lamont 74/48/72/48/81 | Pixley 73/46/72/46/79 | Tulare 71/45/72/45/78 | |
| Woodlake 72/46/72/46/79 | Hanford 72/47/71/46/80 | Orosi 72/46/72/46/79 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 53/84 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 53/80 |
Thursday
Small chance of showers 46/65 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 42/71/ |
Saturday
Increasing clouds 47/77 |
Two Week Outlook: April 12 through April 18: This model is indicating a possibility of a colder trough of low pressure sinking southward from the Gulf of Alaska and possibly affecting northern and central California for a better than even chance of precipitation. It also appears we will revert to a pattern which should bring temperatures to somewhat below average for a change.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Later today, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH at times with locally stronger gusts, diminishing to 5 to 10 MPH tonight. Winds will be variable to 12 MPH Sunday through Tuesday.
Rain: Our infamous rain shadow has been very dominant so far during this event. As the winds subside on the valley side of the coast Range, they dry out the atmosphere, resulting in little precipitation along the west side and, in some cases, elsewhere. Our best chance at legitimate precipitation will be later this morning and during the early afternoon hours as the main cold front moves slowly southward through the valley. This should be accompanied by a period of steady rain which could be locally heavy at times north of Kern County. Any chance of precipitation will end this evening as the cold front moves into southern California. Dry weather will return tonight and will last through at least Monday night. All of next week will be characterized by low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with weak waves of low pressure moving underneath this low and into northern and central California. One such wave will move through Tuesday afternoon and night with a second Thursday and Thursday night and possibly a third next weekend. The chance of precipitation appears to be greatest Thursday and Thursday night as a somewhat colder air mass will be associated with this system. It is possible most, if not all, the precipitation will be from Fresno County northward with only light amounts expected as the main dynamics of this pattern will be well to our north.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 55%/90% Bakersfield: 50%/90%
Actual Humidity April 5, 2018: Delano, 74%/28%, Porterville, 89%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20% tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 5, 2018: Stratford 1.45, Parlier 1.19, Blackwell 1.32 Lindcove 1.14, Arvin 1.34, Orange Cove 1.23, Porterville 1.19, Delano 1.23, Madera Two 1.11. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 66, Blackwell 66, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 66, Delano 68, Madera Two 62
Record Temperatures: 92/36. Average Temperatures: 72/45
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 16 +12 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for April so far, 66.1 +8.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.09 season. or -3.84. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.73, or -1.97, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:36 am Sunset: 7:27 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 67 / 57 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 71 / 58 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 72 / 57 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 75 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 76 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 72 / 57 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 71 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 74 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1657 / 74 / 56 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / 55 / 0.05 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.81 8.19 66 20.16 162 12.43 14.06
MODESTO 0.81 6.59 58 15.43 136 11.35 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.66 53 14.68 136 10.76 12.50
MADERA 0.02 6.53 63 13.78 134 10.32 12.02
FRESNO T 6.09 61 14.05 141 9.97 11.50
HANFORD T 4.41 51 9.62 111 8.68 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.73 65 7.41 130 5.72 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.82 20 7.89 192 4.12 5.18
SALINAS 0.16 5.45 47 15.53 135 11.52 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 9.42 81 15.01 128 11.70 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.60 44 16.92 133 12.72 13.95
Next Report: Monday, April 9