April 11, 2018
Summary: A southerly surface flow combined with strong upper level high pressure drove temperatures into the low to mid 90s in the south valley yesterday afternoon. Bakersfield hit 94, which was the hottest temperature I could find. Today will be a horse of a different color as a strong on shore flow is now developing, pushing marine air through the Delta and down the valley. Temperatures at many locations this afternoon should end up anywhere from 10 to 12 degrees lower than yesterday.
A strong low pressure system is now approaching the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Its associated cold front and trough of low pressure will move through central California tonight and early Thursday. The air behind the front is the coolest we’ve seen for a while and will drive temperatures down into the low to mid 60s Thursday afternoon. Along the cold front itself, light showers will be possible, especially from Fresno County northward. But, scattered light showers cannot be ruled out even in the south valley. Another element of this system which will have to be monitored closely is the potential for strong gusty winds out of the northwest as pressure quickly falls over the interior and rises off shore. Also, a northwest to southeast jet stream will be overhead late tonight and Thursday, possibly enhancing these winds, especially over the higher elevations. Gusts to near 35 MPH cannot be ruled out, mainly along the west side.
A ridge will quickly build in Thursday night and Friday for the beginning of a warming trend. However, some of the cold spots could drop into the mid to upper 30s Friday morning. For now I don’t anticipate any frost.
The wide swings in temperatures will continue as another fast moving cold front barrels through Monday and Monday night. For now, it looks like there will be a small chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County northward along with another significant cooling trend.
Medium range models are now backing off on the chance of precipitation later next week. This is something of a flip flop from earlier projections. For now, I think it’s wise to just go with a dry forecast after Monday night and see if models can come up with something more concrete.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness later today leading to a chance of light showers tonight and early Thursday, especially north of Kern County. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Friday morning with the exception of Kern County and possibly portions of Tulare County which may remain mostly to partly cloudy. Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday night. Increasing cloudiness Monday with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County northward Monday afternoon and night. Partly cloudy Tuesday. Becoming mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/43/63/38/70 | Reedley 76/45/64/39/69 | Dinuba 75/43/63/38/69 | |
| Porterville 77/43/65/38/70 | Lindsay 76/43/64/38/71 | Delano 77/47/65/40/70 | |
| Bakersfield 79/48/64/44/69 | Arvin 79/46/63/41/71 | Taft 78/50/64/48/71 | |
| Lamont 78/46/64/41/71 | Pixley 77/46/65/39/70 | Tulare 75/44/64/38/69 | |
| Woodlake 77/44/65/39/69 | Hanford 77/44/65/39/70 | Orosi 76/44/65/39/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 44/78 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 50/75 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 43/65 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 40/68 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 43/73 |
Two Week Outlook: April 18 through April 24: This model is indicating a possibility of a colder trough of low pressure sinking southward from the Gulf of Alaska and possibly affecting northern and central California for a better than even chance of precipitation. It also appears we will revert to a pattern which should bring temperatures to somewhat below average for a change.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds later today will increase out of the northwest to 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds tonight and Thursday will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH possible, mainly along the west side. Winds Thursday night will continue out of the northwest, but will decrease to 5 to 15 MPH during the early morning hours. Winds Friday through Sunday will be generally less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions during the night and morning hours. It appears the next period of elevated winds will be Monday and Monday night.
Rain: A fast moving cold front will zip through central California tonight and early Thursday. Even though this system doesn’t carry much moisture, it will have cold upper air support along with jet stream energy which may be enough for light showers tonight through early Thursday along and just ahead of the front. Where precipitation does occur, I would anticipate more than likely less than a tenth of an inch with possibly dry conditions in portions of the south valley. Dry weather will return Thursday and continue through at least Sunday night. Models continue to indicate another fast moving cold front will head down the valley Monday or Monday night for a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County northward. Any rain which does occur in this fast moving front will likely again be less than a tenth of an inch. Some models are backing off on a third system affecting the area about Thursday of next week. Instead of a fast moving trough, a low is shown moving off shore and simply dissipating, leaving dry weather for the remainder of the week. This is a flip flop on models, however, so stay tuned.
Frost: A fast moving cold front will move down the valley tonight and early Thursday. The air mass behind the front is much cooler and could drop temperatures into the mid to upper 30s in those traditional cold spots Friday morning. No frost is expected at this time. Even so, we’ll take a closer look at it this afternoon and report back.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90% Bakersfield: 25%/85%
Actual Humidity April 9, 2018: Delano, 88%/37%, Porterville, 97%/35%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 9, 2018: Stratford 1.31, Parlier 1.01, Blackwell 1.21 Lindcove .90, Arvin 1.12, Orange Cove 1.02, Porterville 1.01, Delano 1.06, Madera Two .96. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 66, Blackwell 67, Lindcove, 64, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 66, Delano 68, Madera Two 63
Record Temperatures: 95/34. Average Temperatures: 73/46
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 17 +9 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for April so far, 65.0 +6.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.40 season. or -3.68. Month to Date: .31
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.86, or -1.90, Month to Date: .13
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:30 am Sunset: 7:30 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 86 / 59 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 53 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 87 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 94 / 60 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 88 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1650 / 85 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 92 / 54 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 91 / 62 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 80 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 8.74 69 20.74 165 12.58 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 7.56 66 16.01 139 11.49 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.66 52 15.11 139 10.87 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.94 66 13.89 133 10.44 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.40 63 14.70 145 10.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.51 51 10.20 116 8.79 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.86 67 7.43 128 5.80 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.13 27 8.79 211 4.17 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 6.68 57 15.79 135 11.67 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.56 81 15.51 131 11.80 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.72 44 17.07 133 12.87 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, April 11/pm