April 13, 2018
Summary: It was quite chilly last night as colder frost stations dipped into the mid to upper 30s. rapid modification, however, will begin today as the progressive pattern we’ve been under lately will continue. Upper level high pressure is shifting eastward from the eastern Pacific and into California. This will result in a rapid warming trend today through Saturday then will begin to level off Sunday. Winds, unlike yesterday, will be generally light today with the possible exception of a few location gusts to near 20 MPH along the far west side.
The next big swing in our weather will occur Sunday night and Monday as a cold low drops southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest Sunday night, driving a relatively strong cold front through central California later Sunday night and Monday morning. The Sierra Nevada may actually pick up some relatively heavy snow as lift occurs due to a 130 knot jet stream flanking from northwest to southeast across the region. On the valley floor, only light amounts of precipitation are expected. However, there may be isolated pockets picking up heavier precipitation as the air mass behind the frontal system itself will be cold and unstable. This may be enough to trigger isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Springtime thunderstorms typically result in localized heavy rain and small hail and this would certainly be the case this time around as freezing levels drop to between 4,000 and 5,000 feet by Monday afternoon.
Upper level high pressure will quickly shift in Tuesday and Wednesday, however models continue to hold onto the trend of another low dropping southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and into California Wednesday night and Thursday for another shot at precipitation and more mountain snow.
Beyond Thursday, the remainder of the week looks dry.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday night. Increasing high clouds Sunday. Light showers later Sunday night and Monday morning. Scattered showers possible Monday afternoon and evening with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms that occur will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Mostly to partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning. Becoming mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness again Wednesday night with a chance of showers Thursday. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday morning. Becoming mostly clear Friday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/43/80/50/81 | Reedley 72/43/80/51/81 | Dinuba 70/43/79/51/80 | |
| Porterville 72/42/80/49/81 | Lindsay 72/42/80/50/81 | Delano 72/45/81/52/80 | |
| Bakersfield 70/48/81/54/81` | Arvin 70/47/81/53/81 | Taft 72/50/80/55/81 | |
| Lamont 70/47/81/53/81 | Pixley 71/43/81/49/81 | Tulare 70/43/79/50/79 | |
| Woodlake 71/43/81/51/81 | Hanford 72/43/80/51/81 | Orosi 70/42/81/49/81 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Showers likely 52/60 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 38/67 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 42/74 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 43/69 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 40/70 |
Two Week Outlook: April 19 through April 25: This model is indicating a possibility of a colder trough of low pressure sinking southward from the Gulf of Alaska and possibly affecting northern and central California for a better than even chance of precipitation. It also appears we will revert to a pattern which should bring temperatures to somewhat below average for a change.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds through Sunday will be generally less than 15 MPH with the possible exception of today when localized gusts out of the north to near 20 MPH are possible along the far west side. Winds Sunday night through Monday evening will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH at times with local gusts to near 35 MPH, mainly along the west side, especially Monday afternoon and evening.
Rain: The next chance of rain will begin to increase Sunday night as far south as Fresno County then will spread over the remainder of the valley late Sunday night and Monday morning as a rapidly moving cold front moves through. The air behind this front is quite cold and unstable and may be enough to trigger isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. If thunderstorms do happen to erupt, localized heavy rain and small hail will be possible. This will be a fast moving system so dry weather will return Monday night and last through at least Wednesday. Models are still pointing towards another low moving southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and into California later Wednesday night and Thursday. On paper, this system looks weaker but it will also have more of a southerly trajectory, so the chance of showers will exist throughout the region. Dry weather will return later Thursday night and will last through the following weekend and into the next week.
Frost: Some of the colder frost stations dipped into the mid to upper 30s this morning. Above freezing conditions will prevail tonight through Monday morning. On Tuesday, we again may see mid to upper 30s in the coldest locations with a slight chance of lower 30s in the lowest river bottom and similar locations but only if skies clear and winds die off. No significant frost is expected, however. Beyond Tuesday, expect above freezing conditions to prevail.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/95% Bakersfield: 25%/75%
Actual Humidity April 11, 2018: Delano, 88%/25%, Porterville, 92%/38%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 11, 2018: Stratford 1.34, Parlier 1.01, Blackwell 1.30 Lindcove .90, Arvin 1.16, Orange Cove 1.02, Porterville 1.03, Delano 1.09, Madera Two .96. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 66, Blackwell 67, Lindcove, 64, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 67, Delano 69, Madera Two 63
Record Temperatures: 96/34. Average Temperatures: 73/47
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 24 +14 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for April so far, 65.5 +7.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.40 season. or -3.74. Month to Date: .31
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.86, or -1.96, Month to Date: .13
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:28 am Sunset: 7:32 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:02
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 63 / 45 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 65 / 47 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 67 / 47 / 0.05 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 67 / 44 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 67 / 49 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 66 / 46 / 0.02 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1646 / 63 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 66 / 44 / 0.02 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 63 / 46 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 65 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 8.77 69 20.76 164 12.64 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 7.57 65 16.01 138 11.56 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.66 52 15.12 138 10.93 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.95 66 13.89 132 10.50 12.02
FRESNO T 6.40 63 14.70 145 10.17 11.50
HANFORD 0.05 4.56 52 10.20 116 8.83 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 3.86 66 7.43 127 5.83 6.47
BISHOP T 1.13 27 8.79 210 4.18 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 6.74 57 15.79 134 11.74 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 9.57 81 15.51 131 11.85 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.03 5.75 44 17.07 132 12.94 13.95
Next report: Saturday, April 14