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Forecast

April 23, 2018/report

April 23, 2018

Summary: On this date back in 1910 the temperature soared to an even 100 degrees at both Fresno and Bakersfield, marking the earliest triple digit reading ever recorded at those locations.  It will not reach the century mark in the valley over the next couple of days, however mid 90s are likely in the very warmest locations this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.  Already this morning, temperatures are running anywhere from 8 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.  A warm bubble of subsiding air under upper level high pressure is now overhead and covers the eastern Pacific Ocean and most of the western United States.  The marine layer along the coast, according to the latest sounding at Monterey, was 1,500 feet.  However, there’s no onshore pressure gradient to tug that sea breeze inland.

 

That will begin to change Thursday as a low pressure system approaches the  northern California coast.  The first response to this low will be to create an onshore flow, deepening the marine layer and moving it down the valley for the beginning of a cooling trend.

 

The pattern for Friday of this week through Tuesday of next week is a bit shaky due to model differences.  One model, for example, shows that low  moving in through northern California Friday and Saturday, resulting in a chance of light showers over the Sierra Nevada with continue dry weather but cooler conditions on the valley floor.  Another model shows a secondary low forming off the northern California coast Sunday, moving southward just off shore.  This would result in a chance of light showers over the mountains and even a chance of sprinkles or isolated showers on the valley floor from roughly Saturday night through Monday.  The main impact from this potential change would be considerably cooler temperatures as readings fall back to near average.

 

Medium range models show a low moving through the Desert Southwest about the first of May, probably too far south to have much impact on central California.  So, for now we’ll go with a dry forecast for the medium term.

 

Forecast: Outside of occasional high, thin clouds it will be mostly clear and warm through Wednesday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Friday with a cooling trend.  Variable cloudiness at times Friday night through Monday with a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers Saturday night through Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 92/55/93/56/93 Reedley 93/55/93/56/93 Dinuba 91/54/92/56/92
Porterville 94/56/94/57/93 Lindsay 93/55/93/56/93 Delano 94/57/94/58/94
Bakersfield 94/63/95/64/94 Arvin 94/60/94/61/94 Taft 93/65/94/65/93
Lamont 95/60/94/61/93 Pixley 93/56/93/57/92 Tulare 92/54/93/56/92
Woodlake 93/55/94/56/93 Hanford 93/55/94/56/93 Orosi 92/54/93/55/92

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Mostly clear

55/87

Friday

Partly cloudy

51/80

Saturday

Variable cloudiness

47/75

Sunday

Variable cloudiness

47/76

Monday

Variable cloudiness

45/75

 

Two Week Outlook:  April 30 through May 6:  Upper level high pressure returns during this time frame, so the chance of precipitation appears to be pretty low.  Along with the high will be generally above average temperatures.

 

Winds: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and variable in nature through Wednesday night.  Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.  Winds during the night and early morning hours will be less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather for at least the next 5 days and quite possibly longer.  Models vary a great deal on the pattern for Saturday through Tuesday.  None of them shows much of a chance of measurable rain on the valley floor, but one model does show a low pressure system moving southward parallel to the coast during the second half of the weekend and into early next week.  This could conceivably result in isolated light showers, but my feeling at this juncture is that most, if not all, of the light precipitation will be confined to the Sierra Nevada.  With this much model difference, I would advice to stay tuned as this is not a high confidence forecast.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above 32 degrees.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 25%/95%  Bakersfield: 20%/70%

Actual Humidity April 21, 2018: Delano, 80%/26%, Porterville, 93%/22%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 21, 2018: Stratford 1.37, Parlier 1.14, Blackwell 1.47 Lindcove 1.10, Arvin 1.27, Orange Cove 1.16, Porterville 1.15, Delano 1.25, Madera Two 1.11.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 63, Blackwell 67, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 65, Delano 68, Madera Two 63

 

Record Temperatures: 96/33. Average Temperatures: 77/49

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 29 +9 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for April so far, 62.3 +2.7

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -3.70.  Month to Date: .64

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.04.  Month to Date: .20

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:14 am  Sunset: 7:40 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:26

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  86 /  50 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  89 /  57 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  89 /  51 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  89 /  50 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  91 /  58 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  87 /  52 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1648 /  88 /  52 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  89 /  52 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1656 /  88 /  63 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.09    70   21.68   167    12.95    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.00    67   16.78   141    11.87    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    6.91    61   15.79   140    11.26    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    67   14.17   131    10.83    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    64   17.08   163    10.46    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    52   10.65   117     9.11    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.93    66    7.76   130     5.99     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.13    27    8.81   207     4.26     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.13    59   16.36   136    12.02    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    80   15.96   133    12.04    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    45   18.10   137    13.23    13.95

 

Next report: Tuesday, April 24