April 24, 2018
Summary: Low to mid 90s were widespread throughout the valley yesterday afternoon and I do look for a repeat performance today. Strong upper level high pressure covers most of the western United States and just off shore. This has resulted in a freezing level up to 12,500 feet with a fairly shallow marine layer at 1,600 feet. That marine layer will be the first phase of a change in the pattern which will subtly begin Wednesday as a large area of low pressure begins to slowly approach the northern California coast. That modified sea breeze will begin to move through the Delta, possibly resulting in a few degrees of cooling from Merced County northward Wednesday with marine air spreading down the valley Thursday. Even so, temperatures will remain well above average.
There are still many difference in models on how exactly the low pressure system approaching the northern California coast will behave. Some models show it simply moving inland during the late part of the workweek and over the weekend for a chance of light showers over the mountains of northern California and possibly the Sierra Nevada. The European models place the low over northern California Saturday then show it slowly sinking southward into central and southern California Sunday and Monday for a chance of light showers over the Sierra Nevada. For now, I’ll go with a dry forecast but this may be a tricky forecast so don’t be totally shocked if we add a small chance of light showers to the forecast, especially for Sunday and Monday.
No matter which model you choose, it all means a significant cooling trend is at hand with increasing wind conditions beginning Thursday and lasting off and on through the weekend.
The two week model going out through the first week in May is indicating the possibility of an unsettled pattern so we’ll keep an eye on this to see if there’s a possibility of a late season event that could lead to showers. At this point, though, we’ll continue to go with a dry forecast.
Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight. Mostly clear Thursday with occasional high clouds. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday. Variable cloudiness at times Friday night through Tuesday and much cooler.
Short Term:
| Madera 90/54/88/52/85 | Reedley 91/55/91/54/86 | Dinuba 90/55/90/53/85 | |
| Porterville 93/55/92/53/87 | Lindsay 92/54/92/53/87 | Delano 93/57/92/55/87 | |
| Bakersfield 94/62/91/60/88 | Arvin 93/58/92/56/88 | Taft 90/64/90/62/87 | |
| Lamont 93/59/91/56/88 | Pixley 92/54/92/53/87 | Tulare 90/54/90/52/86 | |
| Woodlake 91/54/91/52/86 | Hanford 93/55/92/53/87 | Orosi 91/54/91/52/86 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 52/78 |
Saturday
Variable clouds 48/73 |
Sunday
Variable clouds 46/74 |
Monday
Variable clouds 48/73 |
Tuesday
Variable clouds 44/72 |
Two Week Outlook: May 1 through May 7: This model is indicating a low pressure system will be off the northern California coast. This system, in theory, could produce a chance of showers over central California, mainly over the mountain areas. However, the chance of measurable rain over the valley floor will remain low. Temperatures should range somewhat near to slightly below seasonal averages.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or below 12 MPH through Wednesday with overnight winds of generally less than 5 MPH. On Thursday, winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible along the west side. Winds Thursday night and Friday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. Expect periods of breezy weather over the weekend.
Rain: For now, we’ll go with a dry forecast for the remainder of the week and into next week, however, stay tuned as there are many model differences. Most indicate there will be a small chance of showers over the Sierra Friday through Tuesday. However, if we do see small differences in strengths and paths of a low pressure system moving through this weekend, we may have to introduce a small chance of showers over the valley floor. Even the medium range outlook is a bit muddy at this point as a new low will approach the northern California coast about May 1, possibly bringing with it unsettled weather.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/90% Bakersfield: 15%/60%
Actual Humidity April 22, 2018: Delano, 81%/21%, Porterville, 92%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 22, 2018: Stratford 1.39, Parlier 1.17, Blackwell 1.45 Lindcove 1.13, Arvin 1.29, Orange Cove 1.20, Porterville 1.16, Delano 1.25, Madera Two 1.14. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 63, Blackwell 67, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 65, Delano 69, Madera Two 63
Record Temperatures: 100/39. Average Temperatures: 77/49
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 34 +13 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for April so far, 62.6 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -3.73. Month to Date: .64
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.06. Month to Date: .20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:13 am Sunset: 7:41 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:28
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 90 / 53 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 92 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 92 / 53 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 93 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 94 / 63 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 90 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1628 / 92 / 59 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 92 / 55 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 90 / 65 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 88 / 66 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 70 21.68 167 12.98 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 67 16.78 141 11.89 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 61 15.79 140 11.28 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 66 14.17 130 10.86 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 64 17.08 163 10.49 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 51 10.65 117 9.14 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 66 7.76 129 6.00 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.13 26 8.81 206 4.27 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.13 59 16.36 136 12.05 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 80 15.96 132 12.06 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 45 18.10 137 13.26 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, April 25