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April 30, 2018
Summary: A considerable amount of cloud cover is evident over much of the valley this morning with most locations reporting an overcast based at 6,500 feet. A strong northwest flow is wrapping around a big low pressure system which is moving from southeast Oregon into the Great Basin by this afternoon. This northwesterly flow is responsible for much of the cloud cover this morning. As it is lifted by the Sierra and the Kern County mountains, it condenses into cloud cover. Freezing levels last night were down to 8,200 feet and they will continue to lower as the low over the Great Basin encroaches on our region. The western side of this system will be over central California Tuesday into early Wednesday. A secondary impulse will move from north to south through central California, generating showers and thunderstorms over the mountain areas with a small risk of scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms over the valley floor. The greatest risk of this occurring will be Tuesday afternoon and evening with the risk ending by late morning Wednesday.
By Wednesday evening, the low will be moving into the Desert Southwest, creating an omega block configuration on the weather map as high pressure builds northeastward into the Pacific Northwest. It’s unclear how quickly the trough will move eastward, but it does appear upper level high pressure will finally move in over the weekend with warmer locations possibly moving into the lower 90s.
Models are quite muddy on the pattern for Monday through Wednesday of next week. Some suggest another trough will move through but with little if any chance of rain. This trough could result in another cooling trend, but it depends on model of choice. The two week model out this morning is indicating almost no chance of precipitation with above average temperatures as high pressure dominates.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy through Wednesday morning. A chance of scattered light showers Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There will be a small chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Becoming mostly clear Wednesday afternoon and continuing mostly clear Wednesday night through Monday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 73/48/71/50/77 | Reedley 73/49/74/50/78 | Dinuba 72/47/71/49/76 | |
| Porterville 72/48/71/48/79 | Lindsay 71/46/74/48/79 | Delano 72/51/71/51/79 | |
| Bakersfield 71/53/70/54/78 | Arvin 70/50/71/52/78 | Taft 73/55/72/55/77 | |
| Lamont 71/51/72/52/78 | Pixley 72/50/71/52/79 | Tulare 72/47/72/47/78 | |
| Woodlake 71/50/71/52/77 | Hanford 72/48/72/50/79 | Orosi 72/46/72/49/78 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 52/80 |
Friday
Mostly clear 55/87 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 57/90 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 54/87 |
Monday
Mostly clear 54/87 |
Two Week Outlook: May 7 through May 13: This model is redeveloping a ridge pattern over the eastern Pacific and the western U.S. This indicates we will have above average temperatures with very little, if any chance, of precipitation.
May: This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation.
May, June, July: Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California. This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail. Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.
Winds: winds will be mostly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH through Tuesday evening with local gusts to 25 MPH. Winds Wednesday through Friday will be generally less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain: The western side of a trough of low pressure moving through the Great Basin will slide through central California Tuesday into early Wednesday. There will be a chance of scattered light showers, especially Tuesday afternoon with even a small chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. If these storms do happen to develop, localized heavy rain and small hail cannot be ruled out, but I must emphasize most locations will remain dry or will pick up generally less than .10 of an inch. There will still be a chance through about mid morning Wednesday then dry weather will return Wednesday afternoon and will last indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/90% Bakersfield: 30%/75%
Actual Humidity April 28, 2018: Delano, 86%/31`%, Porterville, 95%/29%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 28, 2018: Stratford 1.82, Parlier 1.57, Blackwell 1.88 Lindcove 1.52, Arvin 1.61, Orange Cove 1.61, Porterville 1.55, Delano 1.58, Madera Two 1.54. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 71, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, 67, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 74, Delano 75, Madera Two NA
Record Temperatures: 96/35. Average Temperatures: 79/49
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 69 +36 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for April so far, 64.2 +3.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -3.89. Month to Date: .64
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.14. Month to Date: .20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:06 am Sunset: 7:47 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 69 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 71 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 72 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 72 / 49 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 69 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 69 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 69 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 69 21.68 165 13.13 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 66 16.78 139 12.05 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 60 15.79 138 11.45 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 65 14.17 128 11.04 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 63 17.08 160 10.65 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 51 10.65 115 9.30 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 65 7.76 128 6.08 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.13 26 8.81 205 4.30 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.13 59 16.36 134 12.17 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 79 15.96 131 12.16 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 45 18.10 135 13.39 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, May 1