May 1, 2018
Summary: Doppler radar is indicating light showers are moving from northeast to southwest into the lower Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley. There are also a few scattered showers over the Sierra Nevada and a few cells are showing up over extreme western Kern County. A broad area of low pressure is currently covering most of the western United States. There is a secondary wave which will move through central California later today and tonight. Combined with daytime heating, it will set off scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountain areas with even a small chance of widely scattered activity over the valley floor. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the time of maximum daytime heating, or in other words this afternoon through early evening. Those thunderstorms would naturally possibly result in localized heavy rain or even small hail. My feeling is that most locations will remain dry with perhaps a 20% to 30% chance of measurable rain at any given location with the greatest risk being in the south valley.
By Wednesday, the low will begin to shift eastward into the interior west, allowing upper level high pressure to begin to build eastward from the eastern Pacific over California. This will result in a significant warming trend with warmer locations peaking out at over 90 degrees over the weekend.
We may see a minor cooling trend Monday through Wednesday of next week as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the Pacific Northwest, increasing the onshore flow over northern and central California. Medium range models indicate nothing but dry weather and above average temperatures late next week and into the following week.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Wednesday morning with a chance of widely scattered light showers, mainly this afternoon and evening. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening. Clearing Wednesday afternoon. Becoming mostly clear Thursday through Tuesday of next week.
Short Term:
Madera 71/49/79/50/84 | Reedley 72/50/80/51/85 | Dinuba 70/48/79/49/84 | |
Porterville 71/47/79/49/85 | Lindsay 70/47/79/50/84 | Delano 71/50/80/51/85 | |
Bakersfield 69/54/77/55/84 | Arvin 69/52/78/53/85 | Taft 70/53/78/54/84 | |
Lamont 70/53/78/55/84 | Pixley 71/51/78/52/85 | Tulare 70/48/78/50/83 | |
Woodlake 70/48/79/50/83 | Hanford 71/50/81/52/84 | Orosi 71/49/79/50/84 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Friday
Mostly clear 57/84 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 58/90 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 57/89 |
Monday
Mostly clear 54/86 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 54/83 |
Two Week Outlook: May 7 through May 13: This model is redeveloping a ridge pattern over the eastern Pacific and the western U.S. This indicates we will have above average temperatures with very little, if any chance, of precipitation.
May: This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation.
May, June, July: Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California. This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail. Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest today through this evening at around 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly in the vicinity of showers. Winds later tonight through Friday will be generally less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Radar this morning is indicating scattered light activity over the northern San Joaquin Valley, the Sierra Nevada, and even a few cells over extreme western Kern County. As the daytime heating process revs up, more activity will break out over the mountain areas with even a small chance of scattered light showers over the valley floor. This afternoon and evening, it’s possible a few isolated thunderstorms will occur, but overall most locations will probably remain dry with this system. Locations that do receive precipitation will likely record less than .10 of an inch, unless a location gets nailed by a thunderstorm in which case more would occur. The small chance of scattered light showers will continue through tonight and end by Wednesday morning with the possible exception of the south valley, mainly near the mountains. Dry weather will be a given Wednesday afternoon and beyond as high pressure takes over. All the medium range models this morning are indicating dry weather will continue next week and possibly the following week, as well.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 40%/90% Bakersfield: 40%/75%
Actual Humidity April 29, 2018: Delano, 85%/40%, Porterville, 93%/38%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 29, 2018: Stratford 1.76, Parlier 1.55, Blackwell 1.82 Lindcove 1.44, Arvin 1.50, Orange Cove 1.59, Porterville 1.47, Delano 1.51, Madera Two 1.48. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 71, Blackwell 74, Lindcove, 68, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 74, Delano 75, Madera Two NA
Record Temperatures: 100/37. Average Temperatures: 79/50
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 69 +34 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for April so far, 64.1 +3.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -3.92. Month to Date: .64
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.15. Month to Date: .20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:05 am Sunset: 7:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 73 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 73 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 75 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 72 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 74 / 54 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 72 / 51 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 72 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 69 21.68 165 13.15 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 66 16.78 139 12.08 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 60 15.79 138 11.48 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 65 14.17 128 11.06 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 63 17.08 160 10.67 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 50 10.65 114 9.32 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 65 7.76 127 6.09 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.13 26 8.81 204 4.31 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.13 58 16.36 134 12.19 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 79 15.96 131 12.17 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 45 18.10 135 13.41 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, May 2