May 9, 2018
Summary: The main forecast challenge all the way through early next week will be temperature considerations. There is a weak trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and western Canada this morning with the trailing portion of this system down into northern California. This will add some synoptic cooling today, although I believe it will be marginal. I expect warmest locations today to approach the 90 degree mark. From Thursday on, marine air will spill into the valley, becoming a factor in temperatures dipping down into the low to mid 80s which is closer to seasonal averages. That low pressure system currently moving inland to our north will form a closed low over Washington and Oregon Thursday then will drop southeastward into the Great Basin Friday. It appears this low will center over eastern Nevada and western Utah with California on its western flank. This should create enough of an on shore flow for marine air to move down the valley from time to time, lowering temperatures to about seasonal values. The fact that the western flank of the low will be over California will be favorable for scattered to isolated thunderstorms to develop each afternoon over the high Sierra beginning Friday. The valley, however, will remain mostly clear with some increased wind conditions from time to time.
The low will remain in place through Monday. A new low will move through the Pacific Northwest, kicking our low eastward Tuesday. This will allow high pressure to build in at mid week and beyond for a warming trend. For now, outside of thunderstorms over the Sierra, no active weather is in the forecast short or medium range.
Forecast: Other than a few high, thin clouds at times, it will be mostly clear through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 87/53/84/53/85 | Reedley 88/54/86/54/86 | Dinuba 87/52/84/54/85 | |
| Porterville 89/53/86/53/86 | Lindsay 88/53/88/52/87 | Delano 90/55/86/55/87 | |
| Bakersfield 89/60/87/60/87 | Arvin 91/57/86/57/86 | Taft 90/65/87/62/86 | |
| Lamont 90/57/86/57/87 | Pixley 89/56/86/54/87 | Tulare 88/52/85/52/86 | |
| Woodlake 88/52/87/52/86 | Hanford 90/53/87/54/86 | Orosi 89/53/87/53/86 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 56/83 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 52/81 |
Monday
Mostly clear 52/81 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 53/83 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 53/82 |
Two Week Outlook: May 15 through May 21: This model indicates a strong ridge of upper level high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific Ocean and California. This should result in well above average temperatures with little, if any, chance of precipitation.
May: This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation.
May, June, July: Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California. This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail. Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be at or below 15 MPH today and mainly out of the northwest this afternoon. Winds tonight through Friday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH at times with gusts to 25 MPH possible, especially along the west side. Winds in the 10 to 20 MPH range with stronger gusts can be expected Friday night and Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/85% Bakersfield: 25%/65%
Actual Humidity May 7, 2018: Delano, 81%/20%, Porterville, 89%/19%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 7, 2018: Stratford 1.63, Parlier 1.46, Blackwell 1.67 Lindcove 1.40, Arvin 1.52, Orange Cove 1.52, Porterville 1.39, Delano 1.41, Madera Two 1.52. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 69, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, 68, Arvin, 74, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 73, Delano 73, Madera Two NA
Record Temperatures: 101/39. Average Temperatures: 82/53
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 104 +48 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for May so far, 68.8 +2.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.08. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.22. Month to Date: T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:57 am Sunset: 7:55 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:59
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 91 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 91 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 91 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 92 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 90 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 89 / 54 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 90 / 55 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 89 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 68 21.68 163 13.32 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 65 16.79 137 12.28 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 59 15.79 135 11.71 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 64 14.17 126 11.25 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 62 17.20 159 10.82 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 50 11.04 117 9.47 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 64 7.81 127 6.16 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.22 28 9.03 208 4.35 5.18
SALINAS M 7.13 58 16.36 133 12.31 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 78 16.14 132 12.27 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 136 13.54 13.95
Next report: Thursday, May 10