May 12, 2018
Summary: Low pressure both at the surface and aloft is centered over the Great Basin this morning and will remain there through Monday, although by Monday it will be a weaker version. The counterclockwise circulation around the low has winds aloft out of the northeast over northern and central California. This is moving in colder air aloft, especially over the Sierra Nevada. The freezing level over Reno overnight was 8,700 feet. As the daytime heating process gets underway the next couple of afternoons, it will interact with the relatively cold, unstable air aloft, triggering scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. That northeast flow above us will allow mid and high level clouds to drift over the valley afternoons and evenings, but otherwise skies will remain relatively clear.
By Monday, the low will have weakened considerably and will begin to move into the Rocky Mountain region, allowing weak upper level high pressure to temporarily move in Tuesday night and Wednesday. For the third day in a row, models are showing a closed low developing off the northern California coast Wednesday night and position it near the Bay Area Thursday. It’s projected to be near Las Vegas by Friday. It appears this will be a dry event with the exception of the Sierra Nevada where scattered showers and thunderstorms will no doubt break out. For now, we’ll go with a dry forecast, but these types of low pressure systems this time of year can be tricky so we’ll call this a low confidence forecast for now.
The low is then forecast to weaken and perhaps drift over southern California, eventually allowing high pressure to build in from the west, generating a zonal, or westerly, flow. Theoretically, this would keep temperatures at near average values. So it appears, generally speaking, the next week to ten days will see temperatures near to even a bit below average at times.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday, but possibly partly cloudy during the afternoons and evenings. Mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday night. Partly cloudy Thursday through Friday night. Becoming mostly clear Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 81/49/82/51/83 | Reedley 82/50/83/51/82 | Dinuba 80/48/81/49/81 | |
Porterville 82/49/83/51/83 | Lindsay 82/50/82/51/83 | Delano 82/54/82/54/83 | |
Bakersfield 81/56/82/57/83 | Arvin 83/55/82/54/83 | Taft 81/60/82/57/83 | |
Lamont 83/56/82/55/83 | Pixley 81/52/82/52/84 | Tulare 80/50/81/51/81 | |
Woodlake 82/51/82/51/83 | Hanford 81/49/82/51/82 | Orosi 81/50/81/52/82 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Tuesday
Mostly clear 53/84 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 54/85 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 51/80 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 50/78 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 51/83 |
Two Week Outlook: May 19 through May 25: This model is reverting back to a weaker version of high pressure over the western U.S. with possibly some kind of low pressure system involved. This time of year, the chance of precipitation will be very minimal with temperatures falling back to seasonal values.
May: This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation.
May, June, July: Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California. This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail. Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH at times through Tuesday with locally stronger gusts this afternoon and evening.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 15%/85% Bakersfield: 15%/60%
Actual Humidity May 10, 2018: Delano, 92%/28%, Porterville, 89%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 10, 2018: Stratford 1.80, Parlier 1.60, Blackwell 1.76 Lindcove 1.52, Arvin 1.69, Orange Cove 1.73, Porterville 1.57, Delano 1.53, Madera Two 1.70. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 71, Blackwell 76, Lindcove, 69, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 77, Delano 75, Madera Two NA
Record Temperatures: 100/40. Average Temperatures: 83/53
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 129 +61 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for May so far, 70.1 +3.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.12. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.24. Month to Date: T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:54 am Sunset: 7:57 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14.02
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 58 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 86 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 63 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 84 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1647 / 81 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 84 / 54 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1657 / 83 / 64 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 81 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 68 21.68 162 13.38 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 65 16.79 136 12.35 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 59 15.79 134 11.79 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 64 14.17 125 11.32 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 62 17.20 158 10.87 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 49 11.04 116 9.52 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 64 7.81 126 6.18 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.22 28 9.03 207 4.37 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.13 58 16.36 132 12.35 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 78 16.14 131 12.30 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 136 13.58 13.95
Next report: Monday, May 14