May 14, 2018
Summary: Low pressure currently straddles the Nevada/Utah border. Northern and central California remain under the circulation pattern of the counterclockwise flow around the low. A mid level cloud deck based at 8,000 feet covers portions of the eastern and southern San Joaquin Valley, but poses no threat of precipitation. The low has been pretty much in place for the last 72 hours and will slowly weaken to be replaced by a new low approaching the northern and central California coast late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Most model information this morning shows this system to be dry with the exception of the Sierra Nevada which adds lift to the atmosphere, setting off the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings. These will fire up again Wednesday. Actually, if models are correct, there will be a daily chance of thunderstorms over the high country each afternoon for the remainder of the week.
These types of upper level lows can be tricky this time of year, so I’m going to add a slight chance of showers to the forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night, but for now I must emphasize that this will be a very slight chance with most, if not all, locations remaining dry.
This system will slowly move eastward Thursday and Friday then a zonal flow, or a straight line, west to east flow, will set up for the weekend. Pressures will remain relatively low through the weekend then a ridge of upper level high pressure will begin to move in from the eastern Pacific beginning early next week for a warming trend.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy today through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Partly cloudy at times Wednesday through Friday. There will be a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. Mostly clear Thursday night through Monday.
|Madera 83/53/84/53/76||Reedley 83/54/84/54/78||Dinuba 82/51/83/54/76|
|Porterville 84/52/85/53/78||Lindsay 83/51/84/51/77||Delano 83/55/84/55/78|
|Bakersfield 82/58/84/58/79||Arvin 83/55/84/55/78||Taft 83/58/84/57/79|
|Lamont 83/57/85/55/78||Pixley 83/53/84/53/78||Tulare 82/53/84/53/77|
|Woodlake 83/53/85/54/77||Hanford 83/55/84/54/77||Orosi 83/53/84/53/78|
Seven Day Forecast:
Two Week Outlook: May 21 through May 27: This model, in one way, shape, or form, indicates a weak trough of low pressure will hang for several days over the interior west. This would result in a relatively strong on shore flow, maintaining near average temperatures. Any precipitation would likely be confined to the Sierra Nevada in the form of isolated PM thunderstorms.
May: This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation.
May, June, July: Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California. This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail. Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will generally be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH late mornings through early evenings through Tuesday evening and generally light winds overnight. Late Tuesday night through Wednesday night, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts at times, decreasing to 5 to 15 MPH Thursday.
Rain: A new low pressure system will move through Wednesday into early Thursday. Most models indicate this is a dry system with a chance of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. These systems can be tricky as relatively cold, unstable air moves in aloft. Therefore, I’m going to add a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers to the forecast for Wednesday into early Thursday. I must emphasize that most, if not all, locations will very well remain dry, but I just don’t want to get caught with my overalls down, so adding this to the forecast seems appropriate.
Dry weather will prevail Thursday night and after that for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/85% Bakersfield: 25%/65%
Actual Humidity May 12, 2018: Delano, 86%/19%, Porterville, 72%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 12, 2018: Stratford 1.90, Parlier 1.71, Blackwell 1.88 Lindcove 1.60, Arvin 1.76, Orange Cove 1.80, Porterville 1.63, Delano 1.61, Madera Two 1.70. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 71, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 70, Arvin, 79, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 78, Delano 76, Madera Two NA
Record Temperatures: 103/43. Average Temperatures: 83/54
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 137 +61 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for May so far, 69.8 +3.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.15. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.26. Month to Date: T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:52 am Sunset: 7:59 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14.04
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 82 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 84 / 50 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 79 / 51 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 82 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 80 / 58 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 68 21.68 162 13.41 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 65 16.79 136 12.39 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 58 15.79 133 11.84 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 64 14.17 125 11.37 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 62 17.20 158 10.89 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 49 11.04 116 9.55 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 63 7.81 126 6.19 6.47
BISHOP T 1.22 28 9.03 206 4.38 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.13 58 16.36 132 12.37 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 78 16.14 131 12.32 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 136 13.60 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, May 15