May 22, 2018
Summary: The center of circulation of a closed low pressure system is now at Las Vegas and will be moving slowly eastward. Central California is on the back side of the counter clockwise circulation, which is generating a north/northeast to south/southwest flow aloft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon and evening over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada with the possibility of a cell or two drifting over the foothills. However, the chance over the valley floor is very low.
The freezing level taken overnight at Vandenberg was 11, 200 feet. This seems high but it could easily be above 14,000 feet this time of year.
By tomorrow at this time, the low will be far enough to the east to take out any potential impact on central California. Weak upper level high pressure will build in from the eastern Pacific Wednesday through Thursday night with a dry, southwesterly flow aloft. The pattern Friday through Sunday again becomes more interesting as the latest closed low moves into northern California. This will result in a significant surge of marine air into the valley Friday and, depending upon the exact path of this system, there will be a chance of measurable rain. For now, it appears the main dynamics of this storm will be from Fresno County northward with the likelihood of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra. There will be a small possibility of activity on the valley floor, mainly from Fresno County north.
Temperatures will dive into the 70s Friday and Saturday, rebounding slowly Sunday as the low shifts eastward and upper level high pressure builds in from the west. Latest models indicate we could be near 90 by Monday and possibly in the low to mid 90s Tuesday and beyond. For a change, there will be no closed low feature to hold temperatures down.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through this evening. Becoming mostly clear tonight through Thursday night. Variable cloudiness late Friday through Saturday night with a slight chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly from Fresno County northward. Partly cloudy Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 85/56/87/56/83 | Reedley 86/57/87/57/85 | Dinuba 84/55/86/56/86 | |
| Porterville 87/55/88/57/86 | Lindsay 86/55/87/55/86 | Delano 87/58/88/58/87 | |
| Bakersfield 86/62/87/62/86 | Arvin 87/59/87/60/87 | Taft 85/63/87/67/64/87 | |
| Lamont 88/60/88/61/87 | Pixley 86/57/87/57/86 | Tulare 85/56/86/57/85 | |
| Woodlake 85/57/86/57/86 | Hanford 86/56/87/57/85 | Orosi 85/55/86/56/85 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Variable clouds 58/80 |
Saturday
Slight chance of showers 52/74 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 52/82 |
Monday
Mostly clear 58/91 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 61/94 |
Two Week Outlook: May 25 through May 31 This model is showing more ridging prevailing over the western United States and off shore. This will result in above average temperatures. The chance of precipitation will be very low.
May: This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation.
May, June, July: Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California. This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail. Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH late mornings through early evenings through Thursday and generally light during the night and morning hours. Winds Friday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties.
Rain: There is a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm right along the Sierra Nevada foothills this afternoon through the early evening hours with dry weather tonight through Friday morning. A new closed low will move inland just to our north Friday and Saturday. There is a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly from Fresno County northward, Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. There are still many model differences on the exact path of this storm, so amendments in the forecast are possible. For now, though, we’ll leave that small chance of active weather in the forecast. Sunday will be dry and, if models are correct, next week will be dry, as well.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/80% Bakersfield: 25%/60%
Actual Humidity May 20, 2018: Delano, 91%/32%, Porterville, 87%/27%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 20, 2018: Stratford 1.81, Parlier 1.65, Blackwell 1.88, Lindcove 1.58, Arvin 1.72, Orange Cove 1.74, Porterville 1.59, Delano 1.60, Madera Two 1.67. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 71, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 70, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 78, Delano 76, Madera Two, 77
Record Temperatures: 104/42. Average Temperatures: 86/55
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 176 +58 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for May so far, 69.7 +2.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since July 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.25. Month to Date: .00
Since July 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.30. Month to Date: T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:46 am Sunset: 8:05 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14.17
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 80 / 54 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 81 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 81 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 79 / 57 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 53 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 79 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / M / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 77 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 81 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 67 21.68 160 13.55 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 64 16.79 134 12.55 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 58 15.79 132 11.97 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 63 14.17 123 11.49 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 61 17.20 157 10.99 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 49 11.04 115 9.64 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 63 7.81 125 6.23 6.47
BISHOP 0.03 1.43 32 9.16 207 4.43 5.18
SALINAS T 7.13 57 16.36 131 12.46 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 78 16.14 130 12.39 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 135 13.67 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, May 23