May 23, 2018
Summary: The weak closed low governing our weather the past few days is now centered near the Nevada/Utah border and is pulling away from central California, leaving a weak trough in the upper atmosphere in its wake. Temperatures will be marginally warmer today, although it is a tricky call as the marine layer is 3,200 feet deep with the modified sea breeze moving through the Delta. There is a weak flow through Pacheco Pass where winds are out of the west gusting to 23 MPH. Today, however, the difference in pressure between the coast and the interior may not be enough for a good push of sea breezes, thus mid to upper 80s are likely at most locations this afternoon.
A trough of low pressure will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California Thursday. Models are persistent in showing the southern portion of this trough pinching off and forming a closed low circulation which will move inland through northern and central California Friday afternoon through Saturday. I’ve lost count of how many of these closed lows we’ve seen this month, but this one, like its predecessors, will increase the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. There is a small possibility that a shower or isolated thunderstorm could move out over the valley anytime from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. Like before, though, the vast majority of locations will remain dry.
Temperatures will plummet into the 70s Friday and Saturday. The low will move eastward Saturday night, allowing upper level high pressure to begin to push in from the west Sunday for the beginning of a fairly significant warming trend. In fact, temperatures Monday and Tuesday will likely end up in the low to mid 90s, which, of course, is not that unusual for this time of year.
Models do show a weak trough approaching the coast about Wednesday or Thursday. For now, this trough appears weak and does not indicate a separate closed low circulation which has been so common this month. With that in mind, we might experience a minor cooling trend, but little else.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday night. Becoming partly cloudy Friday morning. Variable cloudiness Friday afternoon through Saturday night with a slight chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms late Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. Partly cloudy Saturday night. Becoming mostly clear Sunday through Wednesday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 84/56/84/55/75 | Reedley 86/57/85/56/77 | Dinuba 84/55/84/54/76 | |
| Porterville 87/57/86/56/78 | Lindsay 87/56/85/56/78 | Delano 87/58/85/57/77 | |
| Bakersfield 86/62/85/60/78 | Arvin 88/59/87/57/78 | Taft 86/63/85/60/77 | |
| Lamont 86/59/85/57/77 | Pixley 85/57/85/56/77 | Tulare 84/55/84/54/76 | |
| Woodlake 86/56/85/56/77 | Hanford 87/57/85/55/78 | Orosi 86/56/85/56/77 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Slight chance of showers 55/76 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 55/83 |
Monday
Mostly clear 60/92 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 62/95 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 60/92 |
Two Week Outlook: May 25 through May 31 This model is showing more ridging prevailing over the western United States and off shore. This will result in above average temperatures. The chance of precipitation will be very low.
May: This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation.
May, June, July: Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California. This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail. Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH late mornings through early evenings through Thursday and generally light during the night and morning hours. Winds Friday through Saturday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties.
Rain: More than likely, dry weather will prevail for the foreseeable future. However, another closed low will drag through Friday afternoon through Saturday evening, increasing scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. There is a small chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms from midafternoon Friday through Saturday evening, mainly along the foothills. Even there, I put the chance of measurable rain at no more than 20% with the vast majority of locations, if not all of them, remaining dry. Dry weather will return later Saturday night and beyond.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/80% Bakersfield: 25%/60%
Actual Humidity May 21, 2018: Delano, 70%/31%, Porterville, 83%/33%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 21, 2018: Stratford 1.79, Parlier 1.61, Blackwell 1.88, Lindcove 1.55, Arvin 1.73, Orange Cove 1.69, Porterville 1.58, Delano 1.59, Madera Two 1.65. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 71, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 70, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 78, Delano 76, Madera Two, 78
Record Temperatures: 104/43. Average Temperatures: 86/56
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 179 +55 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for May so far, 69.6 +1.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since July 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.26. Month to Date: .00
Since July 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.30. Month to Date: T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:46 am Sunset: 8:06 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14.18
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 86 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 86 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 87 / 56 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 87 / 61 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 85 / 56 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1625 / 87 / 57 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 86 / 55 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 86 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 76 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 67 21.68 160 13.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 64 16.79 134 12.57 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 58 15.79 132 11.98 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 63 14.17 123 11.49 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 61 17.20 156 11.00 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 49 11.04 114 9.65 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 63 7.81 125 6.24 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.43 32 9.16 206 4.44 5.18
SALINAS T 7.13 57 16.36 131 12.47 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 78 16.14 130 12.39 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 135 13.68 13.95
Next report: Thursday, May 24