May 24, 2018
Summary: Skies will be mostly clear today but clouds will begin to increase tonight as a developing low off shore begins to make its move on northern and central California. As expected, the southernmost portion of the trough is pinching off and is forming a closed low circulation. This system appears to have stronger dynamics than the several closed lows we’ve so far seen. As this storm moves inland late tonight through Friday night, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected over the Sierra Nevada with even a chance of widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the valley floor any time from late tonight through early Saturday.
The best dynamics of this system will likely be over the northern half of the San Joaquin Valley, so the best chance of anything measurable will be from Fresno County north. It still appears most locations will remain dry. Locations that do receive measurable rain will likely record .10 of an inch unless thunderstorms develop, in which case amounts will be heavier.
By Saturday night, the low will be weakening then will move into the Great Basin Sunday. Upper level high pressure will then begin to build in from the west with a rapid warming trend with readings jumping from the low to mid 70s Friday and Saturday to possibly near 90 as early as Monday. Low to mid 90s can be expected Tuesday and possibly Wednesday then a weak trough will approach the west coast during the latter part of the week with the main energy remaining well to our north. The main impact will be to lower temperatures back down to seasonal averages.
Forecast: Mostly clear today. Increasing cloudiness tonight with a small chance of widely scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms, mainly from Fresno County north and after midnight. Variable cloudiness Friday and Friday night with a small chance of widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Partly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night. Mostly clear Sunday through Thursday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 83/57/71/53/77 | Reedley 83/56/72/55/77 | Dinuba 82/55/71/53/76 | |
| Porterville 84/56/72/55/76 | Lindsay 83/56/71/54/78 | Delano 83/58/72/56/77 | |
| Bakersfield 83/58/73/57/75 | Arvin 84/58/74/57/75 | Taft 83/59/75/56/76 | |
| Lamont 84/57/74/57/74 | Pixley 83/56/72/56/77 | Tulare 82/55/72/55/76 | |
| Woodlake 82/56/73/55/77 | Hanford 83/56/72/56/77 | Orosi 82/56/73/54/76 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 56/81 |
Monday
Mostly clear 58/91 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 62/95 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 63/93 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 59/87 |
Two Week Outlook: May 31 through June 6: This model shows a trough of low pressure moving into the western states and remaining for a few days. No precipitation would be expected with this pattern, however temperatures would lower to near seasonal values.
June: As we head into the summer months, it appears this June will be mostly dry, as is typical. Models are projecting higher than average pressure patterns during the month so look for temperatures, generally speaking, to be above average.
June, July, August: All summers are hot in the San Joaquin Valley, and typically very dry. This summer will be no exception. If there’s any tendency on modeling at all it would be that upper level high pressure would be marginally stronger than average with temperatures also running marginally above average. The monsoon season will begin in several weeks so it’s impossible to tell it will be an active one this year. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH late morning through early evening through today and generally light during the night and morning hours. Winds Friday through Saturday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will generally be less than 15 MPH.
Rain: The latest closed low to affect central California will arrive later tonight and remain through early Saturday. This system, on paper, is marginally stronger and colder than its predecessors and will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada with even a small chance over the Coast Range and the Kern County mountains. The coldest and most unstable portion of this system will move through Friday and Friday evening with the best dynamics being from Fresno County northward. There will be a small chance of widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from late tonight through early Saturday. I must emphasize that I believe most locations will remain dry, but locations that do experience a shower could record upwards of a tenth of an inch and even more if isolated thunderstorms were to occur. Dry weather will return later Saturday and continue for the foreseeable future as no more of these pesky closed low situations show up on models for the short and medium term.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/80% Bakersfield: 30%/65%
Actual Humidity May 22, 2018: Delano, 84%/29%, Porterville, 83%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 22, 2018: Stratford 1.81, Parlier 1.61, Blackwell 1.90, Lindcove 1.55, Arvin 1.77, Orange Cove 1.70, Porterville 1.58, Delano 1.59, Madera Two 1.64. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 71, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 70, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 78, Delano 76, Madera Two, 78
Record Temperatures: 103/44. Average Temperatures: 86/56
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 185 +55 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for May so far, 69.7 +1.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since July 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.27. Month to Date: .00
Since July 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.31. Month to Date: T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:45 am Sunset: 8:07 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 56 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 86 / 58 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 58 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 87 / 56 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 86 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 85 / 57 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 85 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 86 / 56 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 84 / 62 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 77 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 67 21.68 160 13.58 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 64 16.79 133 12.59 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 58 15.79 132 11.99 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 63 14.17 123 11.50 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 61 17.20 156 11.01 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 49 11.04 114 9.66 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 63 7.81 125 6.24 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.47 33 9.16 206 4.45 5.18
SALINAS T 7.13 57 16.36 131 12.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 78 16.14 130 12.40 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 135 13.68 13.95
Next report: Friday, May 25