May 29, 2018
Summary: Low pressure over the Great Basin has moved far enough to the east to allow a temporary ridge of high pressure to build into California. Temperatures already soared into the low to mid 90s yesterday with hotter locations this afternoon possibly touching the century mark. The freezing level taken above Vandenberg overnight was an even 15,000 feet, indicating a warm bubble of high pressure is pressing downward towards the earth. That certainly has the marine layer in check this morning with a level of 1,200 feet at Monterey.
As stated, this high is very temporary and will move eastward Wednesday in response to a developing trough of low pressure. That trough will begin to move inland Wednesday night and will remain over our region through Friday. As is typical during the early summer season, no active weather will be associated with this feature, but temperatures will take a nosedive as cooler air moves in aloft and a strong surge of marine air moves down the valley. In fact, readings will struggle to reach the 80 degree mark Thursday and Friday.
By Saturday, the trough will be moving through the interior west, allowing upper level high pressure to build eastward over our region. Temperatures will respond accordingly with readings possibly into the mid to upper 90s again Sunday through Tuesday of next week.
Medium range models don’t show anything exciting, just the usual eastern Pacific high to our southwest with occasional weak trough passages keeping temperatures from rising too dramatically.
Forecast: Other than some occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Friday. Briefly hot today, but cooler Wednesday through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday with a warming trend.
|Madera 98/64/89/55/78||Reedley 99/65/92/55/79||Dinuba 97/63/91/53/77|
|Porterville 99/65/92/54/80||Lindsay 100/64/93/54/80||Delano 101/66/93/57/81|
|Bakersfield 99/69/93/59/81||Arvin 101/68/91/59/81||Taft 98/73/91/63/80|
|Lamont 100/67/92/59/80||Pixley 99/65/92/55/81||Tulare 98/64/91/54/78|
|Woodlake 99/65/92/54/79||Hanford 100/65/93/56/81||Orosi 98/64/92/54/79|
Seven Day Forecast:
Two Week Outlook: May 31 through June 6: This model shows a trough of low pressure moving into the western states and remaining for a few days. No precipitation would be expected with this pattern, however temperatures would lower to near seasonal values.
June: As we head into the summer months, it appears this June will be mostly dry, as is typical. Models are projecting higher than average pressure patterns during the month so look for temperatures, generally speaking, to be above average.
June, July, August: All summers are hot in the San Joaquin Valley, and typically very dry. This summer will be no exception. If there’s any tendency on modeling at all it would be that upper level high pressure would be marginally stronger than average with temperatures also running marginally above average. The monsoon season will begin in several weeks so it’s impossible to tell it will be an active one this year. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Winds: Winds will generally be variable in nature at 5 to 15 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions from late evening through early morning. By late Wednesday, winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts, especially along the west side. There will be periods of winds out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH Wednesday night through Thursday with generally light winds returning Friday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/80% Bakersfield: 20%/55%
Actual Humidity May 27, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 82%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 27, 2018: Stratford 1.67, Parlier 1.48, Blackwell 1.93, Lindcove 1.40, Arvin 1.63, Orange Cove 1.55, Porterville 1.49, Delano NA, Madera Two 1.56. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 72, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 71, Arvin, 79, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 79, Delano NA, Madera Two, 79
Record Temperatures: 107/45. Average Temperatures: 87/57
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 208 +46 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for May so far, 69.6 +1.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since July 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.33. Month to Date: .00
Since July 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.31. Month to Date: T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:43 am Sunset: 8:10 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:24
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 94 / 65 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 94 / 59 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 94 / 66 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 92 / 60 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1619 / 90 / 59 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 93 / 59 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 91 / 65 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 68 21.68 159 13.65 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.79 133 12.67 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 59 15.79 131 12.04 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 63 14.17 123 11.53 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 61 17.20 155 11.07 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 48 11.04 114 9.71 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 63 7.81 125 6.26 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.49 33 9.16 204 4.48 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.15 57 16.36 131 12.52 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 130 12.42 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 135 13.71 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, May 30