July 2, 2018
Summary: The first two-third of this week will be very mundane as the typical balancing act involving the marine layer shows us the layer is 1,900 feet deep. There is some sea breeze trickling through the Delta and a minimal amount moving through Pacheco Pass, but not enough to have much impact south of Merced County. Highs both today and Tuesday will be a little below or just above the century mark, depending on location.
There is a weak area of low pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest which should bring enough marine air into the valley for readings to fall back into the mid to upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond Thursday, a classic summer pattern will begin to take shape as strong upper level high pressure over the Four Corners region expands westward towards California. This will effectively shut down the marine machine and by Sunday will turn the winds which are typically southwesterly to a southerly direction. A southeast flow may even develop by early next week. If all goes as planned, the second half of the weekend and into next week will be the hottest so far this summer. It remains to be seen how much, if any, monsoon moisture works its way in from the southeast.
Current thinking by models is the monsoon will begin to affect at least the lower deserts of southern California and possibly as far northwest as the Kern County mountains by early next week. This will increase the chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts of southern California and possibly the Kern County mountains. So, this is something we’ll have to watch closely. In fact, if models hold, all of next week appears hot as the southwestern high completely dominates the situation.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see an increasing chance of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada beginning Monday with possible mid and high level clouds visible over the valley floor. At this point, I do not see precipitation over the valley floor, but occasionally a weak upper air disturbance develops, giving sprinkles to the area. For now, though, I feel safe leaving the forecast dry.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Saturday night. Mostly clear and hot Sunday and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 99/64/98/62/96 | Reedley 100/65/99/64/96 | Dinuba 100/63/98/62/96 | |
| Porterville 101/64/100/63/97 | Lindsay 101/63/100/62/97 | Delano 102/68/100/65/98 | |
| Bakersfield 101/70/100/68/97 | Arvin 103/70/101/68/98 | Taft 100/75/99/72/96 | |
| Lamont 102/69/100/68/97 | Pixley 101/66/100/65/96 | Tulare 100/64/99/63/95 | |
| Woodlake 100/64/99/63/97 | Hanford 101/64/100/63/97 | Orosi 100/65/100/64/97 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 63/100 |
Friday
Mostly clear 66/103 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 68/103 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 69/106 |
Monday
Mostly clear 70/107 |
Two Week Outlook: July 9 through July 15: For the past couple of model runs, there has been an indication of a strong high over the Four Corners region setting up a southeastern flow over southern and central California. This would favor monsoon moisture moving into central California, however precipitation is typically confined to the mountain areas. However, on rare occasions measurable rain occurs on the valley floor. For now, I’m not calling for this, but just explaining a pattern change which will also result in above average
June: As we head into the summer months, it appears this June will be mostly dry, as is typical. Models are projecting higher than average pressure patterns during the month so look for temperatures, generally speaking, to be above average.
June, July, August: All summers are hot in the San Joaquin Valley, and typically very dry. This summer will be no exception. If there’s any tendency on modeling at all it would be that upper level high pressure would be marginally stronger than average with temperatures also running marginally above average. The monsoon season will begin in several weeks so it’s impossible to tell it will be an active one this year. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Thursday and generally out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70% Bakersfield: 20%/50%
Actual Humidity June 30, 2018: Delano, 98%/29%, Porterville, 73%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.19, Parlier 2.05, Blackwell 2.46, Lindcove 2.00, Arvin 2.28, Orange Cove 2.23, Porterville 1.96, Delano 1.99, Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 79, Blackwell 86, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, 84, Orange Cove 76, Porterville 80, Delano 78, Madera Two, NA
Record Temperatures: 114/53. Average Temperatures: 96/64
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 616 +136 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for June so far, 77.0 +2.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since July 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.58. Month to Date: .00
Since July 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.40. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:44 am Sunset: 8:22 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:35
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 100 / 65 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 104 / 75 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 104 / 65 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 103 / 68 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 103 / 77 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 101 / 67 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 100 / 69 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 102 / 67 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 102 / 78 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.78 158 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 132 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 62 14.18 121 11.73 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 60 17.20 152 11.31 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 48 11.05 112 9.89 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.49 32 9.16 195 4.69 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.15 57 16.45 130 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 130 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.76 13.95
Next report: July 3