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Forecast

July 3, 2018/report

July 3, 2018

Our office will be closed Wednesday, July 4.  Reports will resume July 5.

 

Summary: We will be the benefactors of a cooling trend just in time for Independence Day.  The necessary configurations on the weather map already have caused the marine layer to deepen to 2,800 feet at Monterey.  This is in response to a weak low over the Pacific Northwest which has developed a dry trough down into northern California. There will be roughly an 8 millibar difference in pressure between San Francisco and Las Vegas through tomorrow.  It will efficiently tug that marine layer inland.

 

Already, the sea breeze is surging through the Delta and other gaps and passes along the Coast Range.  Local wind gusts in excess of 30 MPH are possible through tomorrow, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor north of Kern County.  Both Wednesday and Thursday will see readings at most locations in the mid 90s.

 

I am still watching with great interest a typical summertime pattern developing Friday through Monday.  A big high cooking the  middle of the country recently will shift eastward and park over the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest.  Central California will essentially be sandwiched between two main players.  The first is a low center off the Oregon coast.  The other is the Four Corners high.  This will generate a dramatic heat wave over southern California and will  move temperatures above average in central California.  It appears the worst of the heat will stay south of the Kern County mountains, even though I do anticipate triple digit readings Friday through Monday.

 

Add to this the fact the clockwise flow around this high will move the winds aloft from southeast to northwest in southern California, moving monsoon moisture northwestward into the region. However, that low off the Oregon coast may keep the winds aloft over central California out of the southwest, reducing the chance of monsoon moisture working its way north.

 

Next week looks hot and dry as relatively strong upper level high pressure remains over the west with the monsoon remaining to our south and east through the period.

 

Our office will be closed Wednesday, July 4.  Reports will resume July 5

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Friday.  Mostly clear and hot Friday night through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 94/61/93/59/96 Reedley 97/62/94/60/97 Dinuba 97/60/94/59/95
Porterville 98/61/94/60/96 Lindsay 98/61/93/59/96 Delano 99/65/94/62/96
Bakersfield 98/70/96/68/95 Arvin 101/68/96/68/97 Taft 97/75/96/72/97
Lamont 100/66/96/65/97 Pixley 97/63/95/62/97 Tulare 97/61/96/62/96
Woodlake 98/62/95/61/97 Hanford 98/61/94/58/97 Orosi 97/62/94/59/96

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Mostly clear

63/100

Friday

Mostly clear

66/103

Saturday

Mostly clear

68/103

Sunday

Mostly clear

69/106

Monday

Mostly clear

70/107

 

Two Week Outlook:  July 10 through July 16:  For the past couple of model runs, there has been an indication of a strong high over the Four Corners region setting up a southeastern flow over southern and central California.  This would favor monsoon moisture moving into central California, however precipitation is typically confined to the mountain areas.  However, on rare occasions measurable rain occurs on the valley floor.  For now, I’m not calling for this, but just explaining a pattern change which will also result in above average

 

June:  As we head into the summer months, it appears this June will be mostly dry, as is typical.  Models are projecting higher than average pressure patterns during the month so look for temperatures, generally speaking, to be above average. 

 

June, July, August:  All summers are hot in the San Joaquin Valley, and typically very dry.  This summer will be no exception.  If there’s any tendency on modeling at all it would be that upper level high pressure would be marginally stronger than average with temperatures also running marginally above average.  The monsoon season will begin in several weeks so it’s impossible to tell it will be an active one this year.  We’ll just have to wait and see.   

 

Winds:  Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts through Wednesday with possible gusts in excess of 30 MPH, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor north of Kern County.  Winds Thursday and Friday will be generally at or less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest during the afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70%  Bakersfield: 20%/50%

Actual Humidity July 1, 2018: Delano, 89%/28%, Porterville, 64%/19%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.18, Parlier 2.04, Blackwell 2.44, Lindcove 2.00, Arvin 2.24, Orange Cove 2.22, Porterville 1.95, Delano 1.99, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 81, Blackwell 87, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, 85, Orange Cove 77, Porterville 81, Delano 78, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 110/51. Average Temperatures: 96/64

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 636 +143 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 84.5 +6.5

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.58.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 5:45 am  Sunset: 8:21 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:34

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  96 /  64 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  99 /  70 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  99 /  67 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  99 /  65 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 100 /  75 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  96 /  66 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1654 /  96 /  69 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  99 /  67 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 / 100 /  76 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  93 /  60 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    62   14.18   121    11.73    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    60   17.20   152    11.31    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    48   11.05   112     9.89    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.49    32    9.16   195     4.70     5.18

SALINAS                          T    7.15    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.76    13.95

Next report:  July 5