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Forecast

July 5, 2018/report

July 5, 2018

Summary: The first thing we notice on satellite imagery are high clouds off the southern California coast.  These are the remains of a long dead tropical system.  They will become visible today as a southwesterly flow aloft tugs them to the northeast.  Temperatures will begin to warm today as the marine air on the valley floor begins to mix out.  Temperature forecasting through the weekend will be a bit tricky due to a low center off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and a strong high now developing over the Four Corners region.  That  high is slowly expanding into California.  How much influence either of these two features will have on valley temperatures is difficult to say, but I do believe temperatures will warm into triple digits as early as Friday and remain there through at least the middle of next week.

 

The main heat belt will be centered over the southwest as far north as the Kern County mountains.  Even though we will be hot, southern California will take the brunt of this heat wave.

 

The next challenge will be to try to discern how far to the northwest the monsoon will progress.  Over the weekend, mid and high level moisture will move into southern California for an increasing threat of thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoons and evenings.  Most  model information this morning indicates the main moisture feed will remain to the east of the Sierra Nevada.  That’s a low confidence call as the placement of this high will be critical.  Still, a chance of isolated thunderstorms exists over the Sierra Nevada from Sunday on.

 

Models do show the high weakening a tad, but not until the middle of next week.  It appears that a massive high will cover much of the lower 48 after that, maintaining above average temperatures later next week and beyond.  The monsoon will remain active with the risk of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains with occasional periods of mid and high level clouds over the valley.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Friday with occasional high clouds.  Mostly clear and hot Friday night through Sunday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Thursday and continued hot.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 95/64/100/67/103 Reedley 96/64/101/67/103 Dinuba 94/63/100/66/102
Porterville 96/63/101/68/104 Lindsay 96/65/101/66/104 Delano 95/67/101/69/105
Bakersfield 96/70/101/75/104 Arvin 96/69/101/73/105 Taft 96/76/100/77/102
Lamont 96/69/101/72/104 Pixley 95/64/101/69/103 Tulare 95/63/100/67/102
Woodlake 95/65/101/68/103 Hanford 96/66/102/69/104 Orosi 96/64/101/68/103

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

71/105

Monday

Partly cloudy

72/105

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

71/102

Wednesday

Mostly clear

67/101

Thursday

Mostly clear

68/101

 

Two Week Outlook:  July 10 through July 16:  There is an indication of a strong high over the Four Corners region setting up a southeastern flow over southern and central California.  This would favor monsoon moisture moving into central California, however precipitation is typically confined to the mountain areas.  However, on rare occasions measurable rain occurs on the valley floor.  For now, I’m not calling for this, but just explaining a pattern change which will also result in above average temperatures.

 

June, July, August:  All summers are hot in the San Joaquin Valley, and typically very dry.  This summer will be no exception.  If there’s any tendency on modeling at all it would be that upper level high pressure would be marginally stronger than average with temperatures also running marginally above average.  The monsoon season will begin in several weeks so it’s impossible to tell it will be an active one this year.  We’ll just have to wait and see.   

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Sunday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/65%  Bakersfield: 20%/60%

Actual Humidity July 4, 2018: Delano, 80%/31%, Porterville, 75%/24%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%  tomorrow 80%  Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.12, Parlier 2.02, Blackwell 2.50, Lindcove 1.98, Arvin 2.26, Orange Cove 2.18, Porterville 1.96, Delano 2.04, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 81, Blackwell 87, Lindcove, 78, Arvin, 85, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 82, Delano 79, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 112/52. Average Temperatures: 97/65

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 684 +152 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 81.8 +3.8

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.58.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 5:46 am  Sunset: 8:21 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:33

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  92 /  59 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  94 /  66 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  95 /  64 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  95 /  64 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  94 /  68 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  93 /  62 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  95 /  64 /  0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    62   14.18   121    11.73    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    60   17.20   152    11.31    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    48   11.05   112     9.89    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.49    32    9.16   195     4.70     5.18

SALINAS                          T    7.15    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.76    13.95

Next report:  July 6