July 5, 2018
Summary: The first thing we notice on satellite imagery are high clouds off the southern California coast. These are the remains of a long dead tropical system. They will become visible today as a southwesterly flow aloft tugs them to the northeast. Temperatures will begin to warm today as the marine air on the valley floor begins to mix out. Temperature forecasting through the weekend will be a bit tricky due to a low center off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and a strong high now developing over the Four Corners region. That high is slowly expanding into California. How much influence either of these two features will have on valley temperatures is difficult to say, but I do believe temperatures will warm into triple digits as early as Friday and remain there through at least the middle of next week.
The main heat belt will be centered over the southwest as far north as the Kern County mountains. Even though we will be hot, southern California will take the brunt of this heat wave.
The next challenge will be to try to discern how far to the northwest the monsoon will progress. Over the weekend, mid and high level moisture will move into southern California for an increasing threat of thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. Most model information this morning indicates the main moisture feed will remain to the east of the Sierra Nevada. That’s a low confidence call as the placement of this high will be critical. Still, a chance of isolated thunderstorms exists over the Sierra Nevada from Sunday on.
Models do show the high weakening a tad, but not until the middle of next week. It appears that a massive high will cover much of the lower 48 after that, maintaining above average temperatures later next week and beyond. The monsoon will remain active with the risk of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains with occasional periods of mid and high level clouds over the valley.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Friday with occasional high clouds. Mostly clear and hot Friday night through Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Thursday and continued hot.
Short Term:
Madera 95/64/100/67/103 | Reedley 96/64/101/67/103 | Dinuba 94/63/100/66/102 | |
Porterville 96/63/101/68/104 | Lindsay 96/65/101/66/104 | Delano 95/67/101/69/105 | |
Bakersfield 96/70/101/75/104 | Arvin 96/69/101/73/105 | Taft 96/76/100/77/102 | |
Lamont 96/69/101/72/104 | Pixley 95/64/101/69/103 | Tulare 95/63/100/67/102 | |
Woodlake 95/65/101/68/103 | Hanford 96/66/102/69/104 | Orosi 96/64/101/68/103 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Sunday
Mostly clear 71/105 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 72/105 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 71/102 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 67/101 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 68/101 |
Two Week Outlook: July 10 through July 16: There is an indication of a strong high over the Four Corners region setting up a southeastern flow over southern and central California. This would favor monsoon moisture moving into central California, however precipitation is typically confined to the mountain areas. However, on rare occasions measurable rain occurs on the valley floor. For now, I’m not calling for this, but just explaining a pattern change which will also result in above average temperatures.
June, July, August: All summers are hot in the San Joaquin Valley, and typically very dry. This summer will be no exception. If there’s any tendency on modeling at all it would be that upper level high pressure would be marginally stronger than average with temperatures also running marginally above average. The monsoon season will begin in several weeks so it’s impossible to tell it will be an active one this year. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Sunday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/65% Bakersfield: 20%/60%
Actual Humidity July 4, 2018: Delano, 80%/31%, Porterville, 75%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.12, Parlier 2.02, Blackwell 2.50, Lindcove 1.98, Arvin 2.26, Orange Cove 2.18, Porterville 1.96, Delano 2.04, Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 81, Blackwell 87, Lindcove, 78, Arvin, 85, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 82, Delano 79, Madera Two, NA
Record Temperatures: 112/52. Average Temperatures: 97/65
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 684 +152 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for July so far, 81.8 +3.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.58. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.40. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:46 am Sunset: 8:21 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:33
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 92 / 59 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 94 / 66 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 95 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 95 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 94 / 68 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 93 / 62 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 95 / 64 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.78 158 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 132 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 62 14.18 121 11.73 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 60 17.20 152 11.31 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 48 11.05 112 9.89 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.49 32 9.16 195 4.70 5.18
SALINAS T 7.15 57 16.45 130 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 130 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.76 13.95
Next report: July 6