July 6, 2018
Summary: A swath of mid and high level clouds continues to stream from southwest to northeast, but has now pushed into central and northern California. By this afternoon, most of this high level moisture will be aimed at northern California with mostly clear skies returning. Temperatures will begin an upward climb today as strong high pressure over the Desert Southwest continues to expand towards the west coast. The freezing level at VAF overnight was 13,600 feet. To the east, it jumped a bit and we find the freezing level at Las Vegas is 16,300 feet. This is closer to the southwestern high.
The last of the marine air on the valley floor will mix out this morning, allowing temperatures at many locations to rise to the upper 90s to the lower 100s. In fact, the marine layer has been crushed down to 200 feet. This is a classic summertime weather pattern setting up as upper level high pressure blankets the southwest U.S. with central California on its western fringe. The winds aloft over southern California will become out of the southeast over the weekend, moving moisture from the monsoon from southeast to northwest into southern California. Models show some of this moisture beginning to move into central California after Sunday, resulting in at least a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada next week and periods of mid and high level clouds over the valley floor.
Medium range models suggest a persistent high level high pressure system will be anchored over the Desert Southwest with central California sandwiched between the southwestern high and a low over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern should result in temperatures remaining above average in the longer term and possibly periods of monsoon moisture will work its way into the region. No rain is expected over the valley floor, but the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains may be subjected to a chance of thunderstorms from time to time.
Forecast: Becoming mostly clear and hot through Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Friday and continued hot.
Short Term:
| Madera 100/66/104/69/104 | Reedley 101/68/103/69/103 | Dinuba 99/66/102/68/102 | |
| Porterville 101/67/104/69/104 | Lindsay 101/67/104/69/104 | Delano 101/70/104/71/103 | |
| Bakersfield 101/75/104/76/104 | Arvin 101/71/105/74/105 | Taft 100/77/104/78/104 | |
| Lamont 101/70/105/72/104 | Pixley 100/67/103/69/103 | Tulare 100/66/102/68/103 | |
| Woodlake 100/67/103/68/103 | Hanford 101/67/104/69/104 | Orosi 100/66/103/68/103 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Partly cloudy 70/103` |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 71/102 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 70/101 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 72/102 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 71/102 |
Two Week Outlook: July 10 through July 16: There is an indication of a strong high over the Four Corners region setting up a southeastern flow over southern and central California. This would favor monsoon moisture moving into central California, however precipitation is typically confined to the mountain areas. However, on rare occasions measurable rain occurs on the valley floor. For now, I’m not calling for this, but just explaining a pattern change which will also result in above average temperatures.
July: This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual. A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor.
July, August, September: Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall. Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Monday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70% Bakersfield: 20%/50%
Actual Humidity July 4, 2018: Delano, 80%/31%, Porterville, 75%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.12, Parlier 2.02, Blackwell 2.50, Lindcove 1.98, Arvin 2.26, Orange Cove 2.18, Porterville 1.96, Delano 2.04, Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 81, Blackwell 87, Lindcove, 78, Arvin, 85, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 82, Delano 79, Madera Two, NA
Record Temperatures: 112/52. Average Temperatures: 97/65
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 684 +152 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for July so far, 81.8 +3.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.58. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.40. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:46 am Sunset: 8:21 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:33
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 59 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 97 / 64 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 95 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 97 / 61 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 96 / 67 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 95 / 61 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 96 / 61 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1647 / 95 / 69 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 92 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.78 158 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 132 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 121 11.74 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 60 17.20 152 11.31 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 48 11.05 112 9.89 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.49 32 9.16 194 4.71 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 130 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.76 13.95
Next report: July 7