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Forecast

July 14, 2018/report

July 14, 2018

Summary: High pressure aloft is centering itself just off the southern California coast.  The winds aloft are becoming out of the southwest which is unfavorable for monsoon moisture to work its way north.  There is enough available moisture at the mid and high levels for isolated thunderstorms over the  high Sierra each day through Monday.  Freezing levels have actually dropped just a bit, standing at 15,300 feet currently.  This is a drop of about a thousand feet.

 

The high off the southern California coast will continue to be the dominant player, although mid and high level clouds will not be a surprise although mostly clear skies will prevail.  By Monday night and Tuesday, a new high center will build over the Four Corners region, once again turning the winds aloft out of the southeast.  This will be a favorable pattern for not only hot weather, but increasing mid and high level moisture will set off thunderstorms over the Sierras and the Kern County mountains.

 

The winds aloft during this time frame will be out of the southeast which could nudge a shower or thunderstorm over the valley floor, especially along the east side.  This pattern will continue through next Saturday, so summer simply has a firm grip on central California.  Above average temperatures will continue unless we get a day where cloud cover inhibits sunshine.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Monday with occasional high clouds possible.  Partly cloudy Monday night.  Variable cloudiness at times Tuesday through Saturday with a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated showers and thunderstorms.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 102/70/103/72/103 Reedley 103/71/104/72/103 Dinuba 101/70/101/71/102
Porterville 103/70/103/71/103 Lindsay 103/69/104/70/103 Delano 103/74/103/74/103
Bakersfield 103/80/103/80/103 Arvin 104/78/104/79/104 Taft 103/81/103/81/103
Lamont 103/77/103/78/103 Pixley 103/69/103/70/103 Tulare 101/68/102/70/102
Woodlake 103/70/103/71/103 Hanford 104/70/104/71/104 Orosi 103/71/103/72/103

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Slight chance of thunderstorms

73/103

Wednesday

Variable clouds

75/103

Thursday

Variable clouds

74/104

Friday

Slight chance of thunderstorms

75/101

Saturday

Partly cloudy

71/101

 

Two Week Outlook:  July 21 through July 27:  This model indicates a continuation of persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest and California.  This pattern will favor monsoon moisture moving into our region from time to time for partly cloudy skies.  Thunderstorms will also be possible each day over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains.  Temperatures will range above seasonal values.

 

July:  This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual.  A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor. 

 

July, August, September:  Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall.  Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Tuesday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  The monsoon has temporarily been shifted off to the east and southeast, but it will make a triumphant return Monday night or Tuesday.  Models portray this pattern as one which could bring sprinkles or even a slight chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms.  Most places will remain dry or receive trace amounts while others could conceivably record measurable rain.  It’s a bit too early to talk about rainfall amounts, but usually with a pattern such as this we receive trace amounts to as much as .10.  Historically, thunderstorms have dumped up to .40 in fifteen minutes.  I by no means am going to put that in the forecast for now.  The winds aloft will become southwesterly next weekend, pushing the monsoon to the east of the Sierra Nevada and returning us to a dry forecast.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper mid 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 25%/65%  Bakersfield: 25%/55% Bakersfield, 25%/45%

Actual Humidity July 13, 2018: Delano, 70%/29%, Porterville, 56%/20%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%  tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.32, Parlier 1.98, Blackwell 2.25, Lindcove 1.85, +Arvin 2.20, Orange Cove 2.13, Porterville 1.84, Delano 1.92, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 80, Blackwell 83, Lindcove, 78, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 83, Delano 80, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 110/55. Average Temperatures: 99/67

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 839 +197.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 83.3 +4.8

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 5:51 am  Sunset: 8:18 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:27

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera AP        253 : 100 /  70 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 : 103 /  77 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 : 103 /  76 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 : 102 /  74 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 : 103 /  79 /  0.00 /

NID   : China Lake NAWS 2283 : 104 /  84 /  0.00 /

EDW   : Edwards AFB     2302 : 102 /  77 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 : 100 /  70 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 : 102 /  71 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.77    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.74    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    60   17.20   152    11.31    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.90    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.49    32    9.16   194     4.73     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.77    13.95

 

Next report:  July 16