July 18, 2018
Summary: Yet another very hot day is on tap. The overall weather picture shows strong upper level high pressure centered just to our north. It has the winds aloft out of the east. Meanwhile, over Nevada and southern California a batch of monsoon moisture is approaching. Add to that an easterly tropical wave that is moving through southern California. Central California is on its northern fringe. Thunderstorms will be on the increase over the Sierra Nevada and the mountains and deserts of southern California as this wave passes to a position off the southern California coast. There will be a small threat of isolated showers and thunderstorms from late today through Thursday night, especially along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley where that easterly flow aloft nudges storms off the mountains.
Typically, in situations like this, we see nothing but trace amounts of rain, but where isolated showers and especially thunderstorms occur, as much as a tenth of an inch is possible. On very rare occasions, upwards to a quarter of an inch is tallied. I must emphasize, though, that most areas will remain dry.
By Friday and on through Saturday, a strong high over the Desert Southwest will nudge this mess a bit further east, turning the winds aloft from south to north. For now, it looks like little moisture will be involved in this flow with temperatures over the weekend probably in the lower 100s. the potential of a blistering heat wave is there as early as Monday as a very strong high aloft over the Desert Southwest shifts westward towards California. By Tuesday and Wednesday, we could see readings in the 105 to 110 degree range and possibly hotter. Above average temperatures will continue in the medium term, as well, as a dominant pattern of strong high pressure over the west and a trough east of the Rockies will be in place all of next week.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness at times through Thursday night with a small chance of sprinkles or isolated thunderstorms beginning by late afternoon and continuing through Thursday evening. Partly cloudy Friday. Becoming mostly clear Friday night through Sunday. Mostly clear and hot Sunday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 104/73/102/73/101 | Reedley 104/73/103/74/102 | Dinuba 103/72/102/74/100 | |
| Porterville 105/74/102/75/101 | Lindsay 105/73/103/73/102 | Delano 105/75/105/75/102 | |
| Bakersfield 104/80/103/81/101 | Arvin 106/78/103/77/102 | Taft 105/83/103/81/103 | |
| Lamont 105/79/103/76/101 | Pixley 105/74/103/75/101 | Tulare 104/73/102/74/100 | |
| Woodlake 104/72/103/74/101 | Hanford 105/74/103/75/102 | Orosi 104/72/102/73/101 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 68/101 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 69/103 |
Monday
Clear and hot 72/106 |
Tuesday
Clear and hot 73/107 |
Wednesday
Clear and hot 73/108 |
Two Week Outlook: July 25 through July 31: This time, this model continues to show above average temperatures throughout the western U.S., including California. The position of the high will be such that the monsoon may not be as much as a factor as the high will actually block it, keeping it mainly in northern Mexico.
July: This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual. A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor.
July, August, September: Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall. Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Saturday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: We have a batch of monsoonal moisture caught up in an easterly flow aloft now entering central California. Add to that an easterly tropical wave is moving through southern California. That wave may be enough to produce a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor, especially along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley. Thunderstorms will be on the increase over the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains as this moisture moves in. I must emphasize that most locations will remain dry to just a trace, but there is a very low chance of measurable rain which typically adds up to no more than a few hundredths. Historically, as much as a tenth of an inch has fallen with as much as a quarter of an inch on very rare occasions. Again, though, the chance of measurable rain at any given location remains low from late afternoon through Thursday evening. A southerly flow will develop Friday, pushing the monsoon to the north and returning dry weather. Dry weather will continue over the weekend and should last all of next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70% Bakersfield: 15%/55%
Actual Humidity July 17, 2018: Delano, 97%/21%, Porterville, 81%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70% tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.28, Parlier 2.02, Blackwell 2.38, Lindcove 1.88, Arvin 2.27, Orange Cove 2.17, Porterville 1.86, Delano 1.95, Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 82, Blackwell 83, Lindcove, 79, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 84, Delano 82, Madera Two, NA
Record Temperatures: 111/54. Average Temperatures: 99/67
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 952 +238. Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for July so far, 84.5 +5.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.40. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:55 am Sunset: 8:15 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 104 / 64 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 106 / 73 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 106 / 70 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 106 / 67 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 104 / 77 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 100 / 69 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1610 / 101 / 72 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 103 / 68 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 110 / 80 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 100 / 67 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.78 158 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 132 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 121 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 112 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.95 62 9.16 192 4.77 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 130 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.78 13.95
Next report: July 19