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Forecast

July 25, 2018/report

July 25, 2018

Summary: As hot as it was yesterday, it paled in comparison to what is occurring in southern California.  Most locations in the Coachella and Imperial Valleys topped out at between 119 and 123.  Even so, it will be very hot in the valley through the weekend and well into next week.  Most locations will be between 104 and 110 through Friday.

 

Currently, the center of circulation of  very strong upper level high pressure is over Arizona and southeast California.  The clockwise flow around the high has the upper winds out of the south.  Satellite imagery indicates there are patches of mid and high clouds here and there within this flow which will continue to be visible from time to time over the next several days.

 

By Friday afternoon, the center of circulation will be nudged a bit further towards the east, weakening the high slightly over central California.  This will cause temperatures to dip just a tad, but for now I see no reason to forecast any day for the next week under the century mark.  By late Sunday and Monday, the monsoon will begin to creep back into southern California, but for now it appears the winds aloft will continue to be slightly towards the southwest, keeping the monsoon to our southeast longer term.  Even the two week outlook continues to point to above average temperatures and dry conditions.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear and hot through Saturday.  The same forecast applies for Saturday night through Wednesday with triple digit conditions continuing.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 106/71/107/72/105 Reedley 106/72/107/72/105 Dinuba 104/70/106/72/104
Porterville 107/72/108/73/106 Lindsay 106/72/107/73/105 Delano 106/76/108/77/106
Bakersfield 106/80/108/82/106 Arvin 107/77/109/77/107 Taft 106/82/108/84/106
Lamont 106/77/109/78/106 Pixley 106/72/108/74/105 Tulare 104/70/106/72/105
Woodlake 105/72/107/73/104 Hanford 106/72/108/73/106 Orosi 105/71/107/72/105

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

71/104

Sunday

Mostly clear

70/103

Monday

Mostly clear

71/102

Tuesday

Mostly clear

73/103

Wednesday

Mostly clear

72/104

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 1 through August 7:  This model continues to point to a hot pattern over California and much of the interior and southwest United States.  Upper level high pressure will be mainly over the southwest with monsoon moisture possibly working into southern California during this time frame.  For now, though, it looks like generally clear skies will remain over central California.

 

July:  This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual.  A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor. 

 

July, August, September:  Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall.  Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Saturday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 15%/65%  Bakersfield: 15%/50%

Actual Humidity July 24, 2018: Delano, 85%/29%, Porterville, 84%/28%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%  tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.17, Parlier 2.01, Blackwell 2.35, Lindcove 1.92, Arvin 2.20, Orange Cove 2.19, Porterville 1.77, Delano 1.92, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 83, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 80, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 85, Delano 84, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 113/56. Average Temperatures: 99/67

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1060 +271.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 85.2 +6.0

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:00 am  Sunset: 8:10 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:12

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 103 /  68 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 106 /  75 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 105 /  73 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 106 /  70 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 102 /  79 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 102 /  71 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1700 /   M /  79 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 102 /  72 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1656 / 103 /  81 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 101 /  69 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                           T    3.01    63    9.16   191     4.80     5.18

SALINAS                          T    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.78    13.95

 

Next report:  July 26