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Forecast

July 26, 2018/report

July 26, 2018

Summary: today will be the twenty-first day in a row that Fresno has recorded temperatures of 100 or above.  This ties the all time record of 100 plus degree days.  This record will not only be broken, but significantly so as triple digit heat continued for probably at least the next week.  Currently, strong upper level high pressure is centered near the Arizona/California border and it encompasses the Desert Southwest and all of California.  The marine layer has been crushed down to 800 feet, so the only cooling along the coast would be about a mile or two inland.  The monsoon covers northern Mexico and high clouds are beginning to stream into southeast California.  However, the flow aloft over central California is out of the south/southwest, effectively keeping the monsoon to our south and east for now.  Models do show the monsoon making a triumphant return to portions of southern California during the second half of the weekend, but for now it appears this moisture will remain just south and east of the growing area.

 

Looking ahead to next week, models show the southwestern high remaining in place for a continuation of triple digits.  Temperatures should marginally come down, but will remain about 2 to 4 degrees above average.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear and hot through Sunday.  The same forecast applies for Sunday night through Thursday with triple digit conditions continuing.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 106/71/106/71/105 Reedley 107/70/107/69/105 Dinuba 105/69/106/69/104
Porterville 106/72/107/72/106` Lindsay 107/71/107/72/105 Delano 107/74/107/73/106
Bakersfield 108/80/108/81/106 Arvin 108/75/108/76/106 Taft 107/83/107/83/106`
Lamont 107/77/108/77/106 Pixley 107/72/107/73/106 Tulare 105/70/106/71/105
Woodlake 106/70/107/71/105 Hanford 107/71/108/73/106 Orosi 106/71/107/72/105

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

72/104

Monday

Mostly clear

71/104

Tuesday

Mostly clear

72/103

Wednesday

Mostly clear

70/104

Thursday

Mostly clear

68/102

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 1 through August 7:  This model continues to point to a hot pattern over California and much of the interior and southwest United States.  Upper level high pressure will be mainly over the southwest with monsoon moisture possibly working into southern California during this time frame.  For now, though, it looks like generally clear skies will remain over central California.

 

July:  This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual.  A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor. 

 

July, August, September:  Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall.  Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Sunday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/65%  Bakersfield: 15%/50%

Actual Humidity July 25, 2018: Delano, 100%/27%, Porterville, 78%/27%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%  tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.21, Parlier 1.95, Blackwell 2.37, Lindcove 1.95, Arvin 2.27, Orange Cove 2.10, Porterville 1.81, Delano 1.94, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 83, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 80, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 86, Delano 84, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 113/56. Average Temperatures: 99/67

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1128 +294.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 85.3 +6.1

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:01 am  Sunset: 8:10 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:11

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 105 /  65 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 103 /  75 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 102 /  72 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 105 /  69 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 102 /  78 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  99 /  68 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH0633 /   M /  75 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 100 /  70 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 / 105 /  80 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 104 /  70 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                           T    3.01    63    9.16   191     4.80     5.18

SALINAS                          T    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.78    13.95

 

Next report:  July 27