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Forecast

July 27, 2018/report

July 27, 2018

Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is centered right over southern California this morning.  The freezing level overnight at Vandenberg Air Force Base was 16,000 feet, illustrating a warm bubble of subsiding air which not only is creating hot weather, but is trapping a layer of smoke along the foothills and portions of the east side of the San Joaquin Valley.  The marine layer has deepened a little bit, standing at 1,200 feet, however with high pressure and descending air, there is no chance of it affecting temperatures in the valley.  Temperatures will remain well above the century mark each day for the foreseeable future.  Temperatures may come down a degree or two Sunday through Tuesday but will still be above the century mark.

 

There is some indication of a minimal amount of monsoonal moisture work up the Sierra Nevada early next week.  It’s possible isolated thunderstorms could occur over the high Sierra and periods of mid and high level clouds could be seen over the valley floor, but little else.

 

In the medium range outlook for later next week and beyond, in one way, shape, or form an upper high will be over the Desert Southwest, extending over California.  Therefore, this now record string of 100+ degree record days will continue, barring anything unforeseen.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Sunday.  Mostly clear but possibly partly cloudy at times Sunday night through Tuesday.  Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday.  Expect hot weather through the entire period.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 104/69/104/68/103 Reedley 105/68/105/68/104 Dinuba 103/67/104/67/103
Porterville 105/69/105/68/104 Lindsay 104/69/105/68/104 Delano 106/73/106/72/105
Bakersfield 106/79/106/78/104 Arvin 107/75/106/77/105 Taft 106/83/107/82/105
Lamont 106/76/107/77/105 Pixley 105/69/105/69/104 Tulare 104/68/104/69/103
Woodlake 105/68/105/68/103 Hanford 106/69/105/68/104 Orosi 104/68/105/68/104

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

71/105

Tuesday

Mostly clear

70/104

Wednesday

Mostly clear

70/103

Thursday

Mostly clear

69/104

Friday

Mostly clear

68/103

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 3 through August 9:  This model continues to point to a hot pattern over California and much of the interior and southwest United States.  Upper level high pressure will be mainly over the southwest with monsoon moisture possibly working into southern California during this time frame.  For now, though, it looks like generally clear skies will remain over central California.

 

July:  This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual.  A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor. 

 

July, August, September:  Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall.  Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Monday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/65%  Bakersfield: 15%/45%

Actual Humidity July 26, 2018: Delano, 90%/23%, Porterville, 78%/16%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%  tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.18, Parlier 1.92, Blackwell 2.29, Lindcove 1.93, Arvin 2.25, Orange Cove 2.07, Porterville 1.78, Delano 1.91, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 83, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 80, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 86, Delano 84, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 114/52. Average Temperatures: 99/67

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1148 +299.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 85.3 +6.0

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:01 am  Sunset: 8:09 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:10

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 102 /  69 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 104 /  79 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 104 /  66 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 106 /  68 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 104 /  81 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 101 /  70 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 104 /  74 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 / 107 /  82 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 100 /  70 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.01    62    9.16   190     4.83     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.79    13.95

 

Next report:  July 28