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Forecast

July 28, 2018/report

July 28, 2018

Summary: Strong upper level  high pressure is centered directly over southern California again this morning.  The freezing level stands at 16,100 feet while the marine layer along the central coast is at 1,400 feet.  There is very little leakage of sea breeze moving through the Delta as winds at Travis Air Force Base are out of the southwest at just 16 MPH, which is a light breeze by their standards.  The high is projected to shift slightly eastward over the next 72 hours.  Currently, the winds aloft are out of the southwest but by Sunday will be out of the south and possibly even southeast Monday and Tuesday.  This is a favorable pattern for  moving  monsoonal moisture in from the south or southeast.  The chance of thunderstorm activity will begin to increase, especially Monday and Tuesday with periods of partly cloudy skies over the valley floor.

 

The center of the high will still cover the Desert Southwest and California for much of next week, maintaining this endless string of 100+ degree weather.  The only chance of dipping below the century mark would be on a day where monsoonal cloud cover cut temperatures down.  Otherwise, readings will still come in at above average levels.

 

There are some hints that by next weekend, the high may shift a bit to the east and end up over the Four Corners region.  There are too many model variances to really forecast temperatures below the century mark even for next weekend, but at least it’s a possibility.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear and  hot through midday Sunday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night and continued hot.  Mostly clear Wednesday through Saturday and continued hot.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 103/67/104/68/104 Reedley 103/68/103/69/104 Dinuba 102/66/103/67/103
Porterville 105/67/105/68/104 Lindsay 104/67/104/68/104 Delano 105/72/105/72/105
Bakersfield 105/79/105/80/105 Arvin 106/77/106/78/105 Taft 106/82/106/83/105
Lamont 105/75/106/76/105 Pixley 104/69/105/70/104 Tulare 103/67/103/68/103
Woodlake 104/67/104/68/104 Hanford 105/68/105/69/104 Orosi 103/67/104/68/104

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

72/104

Wednesday

Mostly clear

69/103

Thursday

Mostly clear

68/102

Friday

Mostly clear

67/103

Saturday

Mostly clear

67/101

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 3 through August 9:  This model continues to point to a hot pattern over California and much of the interior and southwest United States.  Upper level high pressure will be mainly over the southwest with monsoon moisture possibly working into southern California during this time frame.  For now, though, it looks like generally clear skies will remain over central California.

 

July:  This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual.  A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor. 

 

July, August, September:  Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall.  Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Tuesday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the low 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70%  Bakersfield: 15%/45%

Actual Humidity July 27, 2018: Delano, 98%/27%, Porterville, 73%/13%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%  tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.16, Parlier 1.88, Blackwell 2.21, Lindcove 1.90, Arvin 2.25, Orange Cove 2.02, Porterville 1.74, Delano 1.88, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 83, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 80, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 86, Delano 84, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 110/55. Average Temperatures: 99/67

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1169 +305.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 85.3 +6.0

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:02 am  Sunset: 8:08 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:08

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 101 /  65 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 104 /  76 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 103 /  68 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 103 /  66 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 106 /  80 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  99 /  71 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /  73 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 102 /  73 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    / 104 /  83 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 101 /  67 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.01    62    9.16   190     4.83     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.79    13.95

 

Next report:  July 29