August 22, 2018
Summary: A strong surge of modified marine air moved down the valley yesterday. All locations, for a change, were below the century mark even as far south as Kern County. Up at Merced, closer to the marine source, the afternoon high yesterday was only 88. The marine layer this morning is 2,900 feet deep. However, the amount of modified sea breeze moving into the valley has slowed somewhat but will probably increase again due to the daytime heating effect. Model projections indicate a 6 millibar difference in pressure exists between San Francisco and Las Vegas, which should keep the marine machine going. Mid 90s is a good bet at most locations through Friday.
The overall pattern shows an upper low stretching from Montana to northern California. This is the main catalyst in the robust on shore flow. That will temporarily weaken over the weekend as the system moves eastward, allowing weak high pressure to move in from the south. Even so, temperatures should remain near seasonal levels.
If models are correct for Sunday through Monday of next week, we could even see a touch of fall in the air. Most models are pointing to a deeper trough digging southward from the Pacific Northwest and into California. Some models indicate we could see temperatures below the 90 degree mark Monday through Wednesday, but we’ll wait and see on that.
The winds aloft are currently out of the west and will remain generally westerly or southwesterly for the next week. This will cut off any challenges from the south so expect clear skies indefinitely.
Forecast: Clear skies through Saturday night. Clear skies will continue Sunday through Wednesday with cooler temperatures.
Short Term:
| Madera 93/59/94/59/95 | Reedley 95/58/95/59/96 | Dinuba 94/57/95/58/95 | |
| Porterville 95/58/95/59/96 | Lindsay 94/58/95/58/96 | Delano 94/62/96/62/97 | |
| Bakersfield 95/65/95/65/96 | Arvin 96/63/96/64/97 | Taft 94/69/95/70/96 | |
| Lamont 94/64/95/65/97 | Pixley 95/59/96/60/96 | Tulare 94/58/95/58/95 | |
| Woodlake 94/56/95/58/95 | Hanford 94/59/96/60/96 | Orosi 93/57/95/59/95 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 58/94 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 59/93 |
Monday
Mostly clear 56/90 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 57/88 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 56/88 |
Two Week Outlook: August 28 through September 3: This model is quite different than the pattern we’ve been accustomed to this summer. It shows a decent trough of low pressure along the west coast. This may actually result in below average temperatures with conditions remaining dry as a westerly flow continues.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through Saturday with locally stronger gusts, mainly along the far west side.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/80% Bakersfield: 20%/55%
Actual Humidity August 21, 2018: Delano, 80%/22%, Porterville, 83%/19%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.88, Parlier 1.81, Blackwell 2.14, Lindcove 1.80, Arvin 2.13, Orange Cove 1.99, Porterville 1.73, Delano 1.80, Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 80, Blackwell 88, Lindcove, 78, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 86, Delano 80, Madera Two, NA
Record Temperatures: 108/50. Average Temperatures: 96/64
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1624 +416
. Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for August so far, 82.6 +3.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.40. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:23 am Sunset: 7:40 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:18
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 60 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 95 / 65 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 96 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 94 / 61 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 98 / 69 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 94 / 60 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 96 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 97 / 72 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 89 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.78 158 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.84 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 121 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 111 9.92 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.37 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.02 61 9.18 186 4.94 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 129 12.51 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.80 13.95
Next report: August 23