August 24, 2018
Summary: We should enjoy moderate temperatures, at least by the standards of late summer, through the end of the month. Models continue to show upper level high pressure being suppressed into upper Baja. In the meantime, a low center has moved from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, creating a zonal flow over northern and central California. This is also conducive for an on shore flow at the surface and, with the marine layer still at 2,800 feet, modified marine air will move down the valley from time to time. Winds at Pacheco Pass are out of the west, sustained at 20 with gusty southwesterly winds moving through the Delta.
The onshore flow will weaken a bit over the weekend, allowing temperatures to marginally rise Saturday and Sunday. By Monday, a new trough will be developing over and off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Models portray a strong burst of marine air moving into the valley Monday and Tuesday, especially through the Delta, but also through other gaps and passes along the Coast Range. If all goes as planned, temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will struggle to reach the 90 degree mark, which is a well deserved break after a long, hot summer.
The near to somewhat below average temperatures will continue into next weekend. There are models indicating the possible return of high pressure in the southwest, extending into California. This remains to be seen.
Forecast: Clear skies through Tuesday. Clear skies will continue Tuesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 90/58/92/59/93 | Reedley 91/59/91/59/93 | Dinuba 90/57/92/59/92 | |
| Porterville 91/58/91/59/94 | Lindsay 92/58/93/59/94 | Delano 91/61/91/62/95 | |
| Bakersfield 91/64/94/66/95 | Arvin 92/62/94/63/95 | Taft 91/68/93/69/95 | |
| Lamont 92/64/93/65/95 | Pixley 91/60/92/61/94 | Tulare 90/58/91/59/93 | |
| Woodlake 91/57/91/59/94 | Hanford 91/58/92/59/94 | Orosi 90/58/90/58/93 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 58/92 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 57/90 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 57/90 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 59/93 |
Friday
Mostly clear 61/94 |
Two Week Outlook: August 31 through September 6: This model is quite different than the pattern we’ve been accustomed to this summer. It shows a decent trough of low pressure along the west coast. This may actually result in below average temperatures with conditions remaining dry as a westerly flow continues.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through Monday with locally stronger gusts to near 25 MPH possible, mainly along the I-5 corridor.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/85% Bakersfield: 25%/60%
Actual Humidity August 23, 2018: Delano, 87%/31%, Porterville, 92%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.91, Parlier 1.77, Blackwell 2.14, Lindcove 1.76, Arvin 2.08, Orange Cove 1.94, Porterville 1.68, Delano 1.76, Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 81, Blackwell 88, Lindcove, 78, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 85, Delano 80, Madera Two, NA
Record Temperatures: 112/51. Average Temperatures: 96/63
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1651 +417
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for August so far, 82.2 +3.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.40. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:24 am Sunset: 7:37 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:14
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 93 / 60 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 94 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 93 / 60 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 93 / 68 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 92 / 60 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 78 / 69 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 94 / 60 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1616 / 92 / 69 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 88 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.78 158 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.84 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 121 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 111 9.92 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.37 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.02 61 9.18 186 4.94 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 129 12.51 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.80 13.95
Next report: August 25