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Forecast

September 10, 2018/report

September 10, 2018

Summary:  Relatively strong high pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere is centered just to the southwest of Santa Maria this morning.  This is helping to maintain a shallow marine layer which, as of last report, stood at just 1,500 feet.  The air aloft is plenty warm with the latest sounding at Vandenberg at 16,400 feet.  There are subtle changes taking place.  The high is slowly flattening out over northern California.  By tomorrow night and Wednesday, the process of deepening that all important marine layer will have begun and the sea breeze will be pushed through the Delta.  As barometric pressure lowers over the  interior, a progressively stronger on shore flow will ensue, eventually moving that sea breeze all the way south into Kern County.

 

Models keep this trough around in one way, shape or form over the weekend and well into next week.  This will eventually result in a southwest flow aloft and will maintain  near to even marginally below average temperatures beginning Wednesday and lasting a good week or so.

Temperatures, especially by Thursday, may not even reach the 90 degree mark in many locations.

 

Medium range models after Wednesday of next week are showing a big  high building over the west, eventually settling over the Four Corners region.  This pattern is conducive for dry weather with a return of above average temperatures.

 

Forecast: Clear with a cooling trend through Thursday.  Mostly clear and fairly mild Thursday night through Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 95/57/91/56/86 Reedley 95/57/93/56/88 Dinuba 94/56/92/56/85
Porterville 95/57/93/57/87 Lindsay 95/56/93/55/87 Delano 96/61/93/60/88
Bakersfield 97/67/94/65/88 Arvin 97/63/93/62/87 Taft 95/69/93/67/87
Lamont 96/60/93/59/87 Pixley 94/59/93/57/88 Tulare 94/57/93/56/86
Woodlake 95/59/93/56/87 Hanford 96/59/93/56/88 Orosi 96/60/94/57/87

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Mostly clear

55/87

Friday

Mostly clear

54/87

Saturday

Mostly clear

58/92

Sunday

Mostly clear

57/89

Monday

Mostly clear

56/87

 

Two Week Outlook:  September 14 through September 20:  For a change, strong upper level high pressure which has been so persistent this summer is nowhere to be found on this model.  Instead, a trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest and northern California is the main player.  Temperatures under this regime will average near to possibly blow average levels with dry conditions continuing.

 

September:  This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California.  This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains.  With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.

 

September, October, November:  The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California.  October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine.  At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.

 

Winds:  Winds will be either at or less than 12 MPH through tonight.  Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH, mainly along the Interstate Five corridor and mainly in the afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/75%  Bakersfield: 15%/45%

Actual Humidity September 9, 2018: Delano, 91%/16%, Porterville, 86%/18%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.73, Parlier 1.55, Blackwell 1.75, Lindcove 1.52, Arvin 1.78, Orange Cove 1.78, Porterville 1.44, Delano 1.56,   Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 78, Blackwell 86, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 84, Delano 77,

 

Record Temperatures: 108/48. Average Temperatures: 93/61

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1873  +446

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for September so far: 79.4 +3.7

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.62.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.45.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:38 am  Sunset: 7:12 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:35

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  99 /  57 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  98 /  65 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  98 /  56 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  97 /  57 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  97 /  70 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  95 /  56 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1656 /  99 /  63 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  96 /  59 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1655 /  97 /  71 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.79   158    13.80    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    63   16.93   131    12.88    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   131    12.26    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   120    11.81    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.35    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   111     9.95    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.83   122     6.40     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.08    61    9.18   183     5.01     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.67    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.16   129    12.57    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    43   18.69   135    13.83    13.95

 

Next report:  Tuesday, September 11