September 11, 2018
Summary: today will be the last summer type day we will see for the next five to seven days. Upper level high pressure which has been hovering off the southern central California coast over the past several days is slowly being suppressed southward by a developing low over the Pacific Northwest. The marine layer this morning is still low and stands at 1,100 feet. That, however, will change quickly as the low to our north begins to expand southward into northern and central California. By Thursday, a huge trough will expand from northern Canada to off shore northern and central California. If this were late fall or winter, rain would be in the forecast. This time of year, however, just very pleasant weather will be the result.
The flow aloft which is currently west/northwest will become southwesterly later in the week and through the weekend. Temperatures as early as tomorrow afternoon will not reach the 90 degree mark with the possible exception of Kern County where the marine air will be delayed in arriving. As the air aloft cools Thursday and Friday and that on shore flow increases, low to mid 80s appear likely Thursday and Friday. Over the weekend and into early next week, temperatures will moderate some but will still be marginally below average.
A weaker version of basically the same pattern will be the focus for much of next week, so it would appear temperatures will struggle up to near average by the middle of next week.
Medium range models do show high pressure building over the southwestern U.S. and California for the last week in September for a warming trend. Meanwhile, however, very pleasant weather will be here and, for a change, will last for a while.
Forecast: Clear and cooler through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 93/57/86/55/82 | Reedley 94/58/88/55/83 | Dinuba 93/56/87/54/82 | |
| Porterville 94/57/89/55/83 | Lindsay 94/57/89/54/83 | Delano 94/61/89/56/84 | |
| Bakersfield 95/64/89/59/84 | Arvin 96/62/90/56/84 | Taft 95/68/89/64/83 | |
| Lamont 95/62/89/58/83 | Pixley 94/60/88/57/83 | Tulare 93/59/88/56/82 | |
| Woodlake 94/58/89/55/82 | Hanford 94/62/88/57/83 | Orosi 94/57/88/55/82 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 55/87 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 53/86 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 53/87 |
Monday
Mostly clear 53/87 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 54/90 |
Two Week Outlook: September 18 through September 24: A flat zone of upper level high pressure will dominate California and off shore with mainly a westerly flow moving into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern is not really conducive for above or below average temperatures but this time of year continues to be dry.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds, especially during the afternoons and evenings, will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through Friday with locally stronger gusts. The exception will be portions of the west side, mainly along the I-5 corridor where gusts in excess of 35 MPH cannot be ruled out.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70% Bakersfield: 15%/50%
Actual Humidity September 10, 2018: Delano, 95%/20%, Porterville, 75%/17%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.72, Parlier 1.53, Blackwell 1.72, Lindcove 1.51, Arvin 1.77, Orange Cove 1.76, Porterville 1.43, Delano 1.56, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 78, Blackwell 86, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 84, Delano 77,
Record Temperatures: 111/44. Average Temperatures: 92/60
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1885 +448
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 79.2 +3.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.62. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.45. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:39 am Sunset: 7:11 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:33
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 97 / 56 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 96 / 64 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 97 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 96 / 68 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 94 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 96 / 61 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 95 / 57 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 96 / 70 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 93 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.79 158 13.81 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 63 16.93 131 12.88 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.27 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 120 11.82 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.35 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 111 9.96 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.83 122 6.40 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.08 61 9.18 183 5.02 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 56 16.45 130 12.68 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 76 16.16 128 12.58 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 43 18.91 137 13.84 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, September 12