September 19, 2018
Summary: Upper level high pressure continues to cover the Desert Southwest into Texas while a trough of low pressure is moving through northern and central California today. It will slide into the Great Basin by this evening. Already this morning there are subtle hints that a warming trend is at hand. The marine layer has shrunk back to 1,800 feet and winds at Travis Air Force Base in the Delta are dead calm, indicating the flow of marine air into the valley has ended. The freezing level over Oakland is up a tad, standing at 13,000 feet. After today, upper level high pressure will begin to build towards the northeast and into California from the eastern Pacific Ocean. It will dominate our weather pattern through the weekend. Late summer conditions will return with warmer locations possibly moving into the upper 90s, especially Friday and Saturday.
A new trough will extend southward into the Pacific Northwest by Monday. However, unlike the current system, it will not dig further south into California. It will, though, weaken the high somewhat, leading to a minor cooling trend. Even so, temperatures will more than likely remain above the 90 degree mark through at least the middle of next week if not beyond. The wild card in all this is the possible formation of a cutoff low somewhere off the northern or central California coast. For now, models show the system remaining off shore so conditions will likely remain dry.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Mostly clear skies will continue Saturday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 87/52/90/59/95 | Reedley 88/52/92/57/96 | Dinuba 87/51/90/54/94 | |
| Porterville 88/53/91/56/96 | Lindsay 88/53/91/56/96 | Delano 89/57/92/58/97 | |
| Bakersfield 86/60/91/65/97 | Arvin 88/58/92/62/98 | Taft 87/63/91/66/96 | |
| Lamont 88/58/92/63/98 | Pixley 87/53/91/56/96 | Tulare 87/52/90/57/95 | |
| Woodlake 88/51/90/55/95 | Hanford 88/52/92/56/96 | Orosi 87/53/90/55/95 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 58/97 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 58/94 |
Monday
Mostly clear 57/93 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 57/93 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 58/94 |
Two Week Outlook: September 26 through October 2: This model depicts a cool trough of low pressure east of the Rockies and upper level high pressure over and along the west coast. This should result in dry weather and above average temperatures.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly less than 12 MPH through Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/80% Bakersfield: 20%/60%
Actual Humidity September 18, 2018: Delano, 91%/30%, Porterville, 89%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.50, Parlier 1.35, Blackwell 1.42, Lindcove 1.35, Arvin 1.52, Orange Cove 1.48, Porterville 1.22, Delano 1.37, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 72, Blackwell 82, Lindcove, 74, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove 75, Porterville 79, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 105/44. Average Temperatures: 90/58
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1945 +436
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 76.1 +1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.67. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.48. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:45 am Sunset: 6:59 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:16
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 88 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 87 / 57 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 56 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 87 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 86 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 86 / 51 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 85 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 86 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 85 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 86 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 66 21.79 157 13.90 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 63 16.93 131 12.95 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 57 16.03 130 12.36 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.26 120 11.89 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.30 152 11.40 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.16 111 10.01 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 61 8.33 130 6.43 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.08 61 9.18 181 5.07 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 56 16.49 130 12.72 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 76 16.17 128 12.64 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 43 18.91 136 13.87 13.95
Next report: Thursday, September 20