Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

September 20, 2018/report

September 20, 2018

Summary:  Upper level high pressure is expanding eastward and northward.  This puts us under a dry, northwest flow aloft.  As evidence of building high pressure aloft, the freezing level has moved up to 14,200 feet and satellite imagery indicates there are no clouds or low fog along the northern and central California coast.  In fact, the marine layer at Monterey is only 400 feet deep with no sea breeze seeping through the Delta.  Temperatures will rise into the lower 90s at most locations today then mid 90s will be the average Friday and on through the weekend.

 

Models which had depicted a weak trough of low pressure clipping  northern California Monday are now showing it will not be far enough to the south to create much of a difference in temperatures for central California.  In fact, as an average readings will remain in the mid 90s through at least the middle part of next week if not beyond.

 

Even further down the road, a low pressure system will develop well off the  northern California coast Tuesday night and Wednesday and will just meander out there for a few days.  Models, as you might expect, are all over the place on how to handle this feature.  Some, though, are hinting that it may move inland through northern and central California next weekend.  For now, I don’t see any reason to put a chance of rain in the forecast, but cut off lows this time of year are notorious for surprising weather.  We’ll just study things as each day goes by and see if any trends develop.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday.  Mostly clear skies will continue Sunday night through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 92/56/95/57/95 Reedley 91/55/95/56/95 Dinuba 90/54/94/57/94
Porterville 90/56/95/57/97 Lindsay 91/54/96/56/96 Delano 92/58/95/60/96
Bakersfield 90/66/96/67/95 Arvin 93/62/96/63/97 Taft 91/67/95/68/95
Lamont 91/62/95/66/96 Pixley 91/55/95/57/95 Tulare 90/54/94/56/94
Woodlake 90/54/94/56/95 Hanford 92/56/96/57/96 Orosi 90/53/94/55/94

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

57/96

Monday

Mostly clear

58/96

Tuesday

Mostly clear

59/94

Wednesday

Mostly clear

59/95

Thursday

Mostly clear

61/96

 

Two Week Outlook:  September 27 through October 3:  This model depicts a cool trough of low pressure east of the Rockies and upper level high pressure over and along the west coast.  This should result in dry weather and above average temperatures.

 

September:  This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California.  This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains.  With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.

 

September, October, November:  The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California.  October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine.  At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.

 

Winds:  Winds will be mainly less than 12 MPH through Sunday.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/75%  Bakersfield: 20%/50%

Actual Humidity September 19, 2018: Delano, 93%/26%, Porterville, 84%/71%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.48, Parlier 1.32, Blackwell 1.38, Lindcove 1.32, Arvin 1.48, Orange Cove 1.45, Porterville 1.20, Delano 1.35,   Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 72, Blackwell 82, Lindcove, 74, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 74, Porterville 78, Delano 71

 

Record Temperatures: 104/46. Average Temperatures: 90/58

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1945  +436

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for September so far: 75.9 +1.1

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.68.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.48.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:46 am  Sunset: 6:57 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:13

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  90 /  52 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  88 /  58 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  88 /  57 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  89 /  56 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  86 /  62 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  87 /  51 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1658 /  86 /  56 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  88 /  53 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1659 /  85 /  64 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  86 /  56 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    66   21.79   157    13.91    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    63   16.93   131    12.96    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    57   16.03   130    12.37    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.26   120    11.90    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.30   152    11.41    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.16   111    10.02    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    61    8.33   130     6.43     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.08    61    9.18   181     5.08     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    56   16.49   130    12.73    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    76   16.17   128    12.65    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    43   18.91   136    13.88    13.95

Next report:  Friday, September 21