September 20, 2018
Summary: Upper level high pressure is expanding eastward and northward. This puts us under a dry, northwest flow aloft. As evidence of building high pressure aloft, the freezing level has moved up to 14,200 feet and satellite imagery indicates there are no clouds or low fog along the northern and central California coast. In fact, the marine layer at Monterey is only 400 feet deep with no sea breeze seeping through the Delta. Temperatures will rise into the lower 90s at most locations today then mid 90s will be the average Friday and on through the weekend.
Models which had depicted a weak trough of low pressure clipping northern California Monday are now showing it will not be far enough to the south to create much of a difference in temperatures for central California. In fact, as an average readings will remain in the mid 90s through at least the middle part of next week if not beyond.
Even further down the road, a low pressure system will develop well off the northern California coast Tuesday night and Wednesday and will just meander out there for a few days. Models, as you might expect, are all over the place on how to handle this feature. Some, though, are hinting that it may move inland through northern and central California next weekend. For now, I don’t see any reason to put a chance of rain in the forecast, but cut off lows this time of year are notorious for surprising weather. We’ll just study things as each day goes by and see if any trends develop.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear skies will continue Sunday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 92/56/95/57/95 | Reedley 91/55/95/56/95 | Dinuba 90/54/94/57/94 | |
| Porterville 90/56/95/57/97 | Lindsay 91/54/96/56/96 | Delano 92/58/95/60/96 | |
| Bakersfield 90/66/96/67/95 | Arvin 93/62/96/63/97 | Taft 91/67/95/68/95 | |
| Lamont 91/62/95/66/96 | Pixley 91/55/95/57/95 | Tulare 90/54/94/56/94 | |
| Woodlake 90/54/94/56/95 | Hanford 92/56/96/57/96 | Orosi 90/53/94/55/94 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 57/96 |
Monday
Mostly clear 58/96 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 59/94 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 59/95 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 61/96 |
Two Week Outlook: September 27 through October 3: This model depicts a cool trough of low pressure east of the Rockies and upper level high pressure over and along the west coast. This should result in dry weather and above average temperatures.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly less than 12 MPH through Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/75% Bakersfield: 20%/50%
Actual Humidity September 19, 2018: Delano, 93%/26%, Porterville, 84%/71%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.48, Parlier 1.32, Blackwell 1.38, Lindcove 1.32, Arvin 1.48, Orange Cove 1.45, Porterville 1.20, Delano 1.35, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 72, Blackwell 82, Lindcove, 74, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 74, Porterville 78, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 104/46. Average Temperatures: 90/58
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1945 +436
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 75.9 +1.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.68. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.48. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:46 am Sunset: 6:57 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:13
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 90 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 58 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 88 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 86 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 51 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 86 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 88 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1659 / 85 / 64 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 86 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 66 21.79 157 13.91 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 63 16.93 131 12.96 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 57 16.03 130 12.37 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.26 120 11.90 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.30 152 11.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.16 111 10.02 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 61 8.33 130 6.43 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.08 61 9.18 181 5.08 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 56 16.49 130 12.73 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 76 16.17 128 12.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 43 18.91 136 13.88 13.95
Next report: Friday, September 21