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Forecast

September 21, 2018/report

September 21, 2018

Summary:  Temperatures yesterday afternoon hit the 90 degree mark at several locations.  They will warm into the mid 90s this afternoon.  Upper level high pressure continues to build into California and has crushed the marine layer which now stands at only 500 feet at Monterey.  Travis Air Force Base in the Delta was reporting calm winds.  The difference in pressure between the coast and the interior will remain essentially flat through Saturday with temperatures averaging 5 to 6 degrees above seasonal norms.  The high will flatten out some Sunday and Monday as a weak trough of low pressure moves through the Pacific Northwest, just clipping northern California.  It may lower pressures enough over the interior to allow a shallow layer of marine air to move down the valley for a minor cooling trend.

 

Models show the high quickly rebuilding Tuesday through Thursday with readings right back in the mid 90s.  The pattern becomes more interesting for next weekend.  By Wednesday, a low will develop well off the northern California coast then will begin to approach the coast Friday, possibly moving inland through northern California a week from tomorrow.  It appears this low will completely cut off, meaning  models will have a difficult time forecasting around this feature, but for now I see no real reason to put a chance of showers in the forecast, at least of yet.  Cooler weather may arrive, though, in another 7 to 8 days.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday.  Mostly clear skies will continue Monday night through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 94/56/94/57/91 Reedley 95/56/95/57/92 Dinuba 93/54/94/55/91
Porterville 96/56/95/57/92 Lindsay 94/54/94/55/93 Delano 96/60/95/59/93
Bakersfield 96/66/95/66/93 Arvin 97/62/95/60/94 Taft 95/68/95/68/93
Lamont 96/63/95/61/94 Pixley 95/55/95/56/92 Tulare 93/54/94/55/91
Woodlake 94/54/94/56/91 Hanford 95/56/95/57/93 Orosi 94/56/94/57/92

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

56/91

Tuesday

Mostly clear

57/94

Wednesday

Mostly clear

59/95

Thursday

Mostly clear

60/95

Friday

Mostly clear

61/91

 

Two Week Outlook:  September 27 through October 3:  This model depicts a cool trough of low pressure east of the Rockies and upper level high pressure over and along the west coast.  This should result in dry weather and above average temperatures.

 

September:  This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California.  This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains.  With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.

 

September, October, November:  The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California.  October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine.  At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.

 

Winds:  Winds will be mainly less than 12 MPH through Monday.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/75%  Bakersfield: 20%/50%

Actual Humidity September 20, 2018: Delano, 90%/24%, Porterville, 82%/21%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.48, Parlier 1.31, Blackwell 1.38, Lindcove 1.30, Arvin 1.47, Orange Cove 1.44, Porterville 1.19, Delano 1.34,   Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 71, Blackwell 81, Lindcove, 73, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 74, Porterville 78, Delano 70

 

Record Temperatures: 102/42. Average Temperatures: 90/57

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1960  +435

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for September so far: 75.7 +1.1

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.68.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.48.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:47 am  Sunset: 6:56 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:11

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  93 /  55 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  91 /  59 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  91 /  52 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  91 /  53 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  89 /  64 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  90 /  54 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1658 /  89 /  56 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  91 /  56 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1659 /  89 /  67 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  90 /  56 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    66   21.79   157    13.92    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    63   16.93   131    12.97    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    57   16.04   130    12.38    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.26   120    11.91    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.30   152    11.41    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.16   111    10.03    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    61    8.33   130     6.43     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.08    61    9.18   181     5.08     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    56   16.49   129    12.74    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    76   16.17   128    12.66    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    43   18.91   136    13.88    13.95

Next report:  Saturday, September 22/First Day of Fall