Summary: Upper level high pressure extends from the eastern Pacific eastward over California and into the Desert Southwest. A low center is developing near Vancouver Island which will eventually extend a very weak trough down into northern California. The marine layer has deepened a little over the past 24 hours and is now at 1,200 feet while the freezing level has nudged up a bit to 15,300 feet. The pressure gradient between the coast and the interior is still not strong enough to begin to pull that sea breeze inland. That will change Monday as that low to our north moves eastward into the Great Basin. Mid 90s will be widespread this afternoon and possibly Sunday afternoon, as well.
With a bit of luck, we should see the marine layer push down the valley Monday for a minor cooling trend. By minor, I mean temperatures falling to near seasonal averages which are now in the upper 80s. that little cool down, however, will not last long as a high will build along the west coast northward to off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Models continue to show the formation of a low pressure system well off the northern California coast by midweek. This feature, when it finally moves inland, is too far to the north to have much impact on the valley other than to begin to lower temperatures a bit again.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday. Mostly clear skies will continue Tuesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 96/56/93/54/89 | Reedley 95/56/94/55/90 | Dinuba 94/54/93/55/89 | |
| Porterville 96/57/94/55/90 | Lindsay 97/56/94/54/90 | Delano 97/60/94/58/91 | |
| Bakersfield 96/66/94/64/91 | Arvin 97/63/95/61/91 | Taft 95/68/94/64/90 | |
| Lamont 96/63/94/62/91 | Pixley 95/56/93/55/90 | Tulare 94/55/93/54/89 | |
| Woodlake 95/56/93/54/89 | Hanford 96/57/94/55/91 | Orosi 94/56/93/54/90 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 57/92 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 58/94 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 59/95 |
Friday
Mostly clear 60/93 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 58/89 |
Two Week Outlook: September 27 through October 3: This model depicts a cool trough of low pressure east of the Rockies and upper level high pressure over and along the west coast. This should result in dry weather and above average temperatures.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly less than 12 MPH through Tuesday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70% Bakersfield: 15%/45%
Actual Humidity September 21, 2018: Delano, 91%/25%, Porterville, 87%/14%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.48, Parlier 1.33, Blackwell 1.41, Lindcove 1.30, Arvin 1.48, Orange Cove 1.46, Porterville 1.19, Delano 1.34, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 71, Blackwell 81, Lindcove, 73, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 74, Porterville 78, Delano 70
Record Temperatures: 104/41. Average Temperatures: 89/57
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1971 +437
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 75.7 +1.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.69. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.49. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 am Sunset: 6:54 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:08
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 97 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 96 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 96 / 56 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 97 / 63 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 95 / 57 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 94 / 58 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 96 / 59 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 97 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 66 21.79 156 13.93 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 63 16.93 130 12.99 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 57 16.05 130 12.39 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.26 120 11.92 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.36 152 11.42 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.21 112 10.03 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 61 8.34 130 6.44 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.08 61 9.18 180 5.09 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 56 16.49 129 12.75 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 76 16.17 128 12.67 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 43 18.91 136 13.89 13.95
Next report: Monday, September 24