October 2, 2018
Summary: Already this morning, there have been a few light, scattered showers over the valley floor. An isolated rapidly moving thunderstorm moved through southeast Tulare County earlier. Models show the center of circulation of our low pressure system to be a few hundred miles west of San Francisco. Models don’t show this feature moving much during the next 24 hours, but they then show it sliding southward along the coast then inland just west of Vandenberg by Thursday morning. There is some tropical moisture available which has resulted in the scattered activity observed this morning. As the low moves slowly southward, especially late Wednesday and Wednesday night, isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the coldest, most unstable portion of the system will be moving southward to our west.
In the meantime, the remnants of former hurricane Rosa have moved into mostly Arizona and southern Nevada. Southeast California got a good drenching as places like Imperial recorded .75.
The low will finally open up into a trough over southern California Wednesday then will move inland. A broad trough of low pressure will develop over the western states beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. California will be on the western fringe of this trough, putting us temporarily under a northerly flow aloft, resulting in very comfortable temperatures this weekend with readings mostly in the mid to upper 70s.
Next week, in one-way shape or form, pressure patterns will be low over the western United States with a mammoth upper high covering the eastern Pacific. This will generate a northwest flow aloft, keeping conditions dry with temperatures coming in below average.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Wednesday night with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today and tonight, becoming likely Wednesday and Wednesday night. The chance of showers should be over early Thursday morning, becoming partly cloudy Thursday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 83/60/77/61/77 | Reedley 83/62/78/61/77 | Dinuba 82/60/77/60/76/ | |
| Porterville 84/62/78/62/77 | Lindsay 83/61/78/61/78 | Delano 84/64/79/63/78 | |
| Bakersfield 86/65/78/64/77 | Taft 83/66/78/64/77 | Arvin 86/63/79/63/76 | |
| Lamont 85/64/78/64/76 | Pixley 85/61/78/62/77 | Tulare 83/61/77/62/76 | |
| Woodlake 84/61/77/60/77 | Hanford 84/64/77/61/78 | Orosi 83/62/77/61/77 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 54/80 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 53/78 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 51/78 |
Monday
Mostly clear 50/77 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 51/79 |
Two Week Outlook: October 8 through October 14: This model is showing a significant trough of low pressure over the western states and is also giving southern California at least a small chance of precipitation during this time frame. There will only be a minimal chance of rain this far north. This model would result in below average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will generally be variable at 5 to 15 MPH through Wednesday with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly near showers. Winds Thursday and Friday will generally be in the 5 to 12 MPH range with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: Light, scattered showers have already occurred this morning, moving rapidly from south to north, generally north of Kern County. Even a few isolated thunderstorms have broken out during the early morning hours, mainly over the foothills. The low is a few hundred miles west of the Golden Gate this morning. Radar and satellite both depict bands of mainly light showers rotating counterclockwise and pinwheeling bands inland through northern and central California. Models are more optimistic this morning on the possibility of a few isolated thunderstorms.
It will be Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night before the low finally makes its move just off shore, ending up just west of Vandenberg Wednesday evening. That is when we will be in fairly close proximity to the center of the system, which is when I believe we will have the greatest opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The activity will rapidly diminish late Wednesday night and early Thursday as the system moves into southern California and opens up into a trough. Models all point to dry weather after early Thursday morning and into next week, as well.
Precipitation amounts will vary widely, ranging from a few hundredths to possibly as much as .25. If isolated thunderstorms continue to break out, locally more is possible.
That tropical system we mentioned for about the tenth is now being showing moving into northern Baja. Many changes will take place between now and the tenth or so, but as of this juncture there’s no room for alarm.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 40%/85% Bakersfield: 40%/75%
Actual Humidity October 1, 2018: Delano, 94%/37%, Porterville, 95%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10% tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.31, Parlier NA, Blackwell 1.40, Lindcove 1.17, Arvin 1.30, Orange Cove 1.29, Porterville 1.06, Delano 1.16, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 72, Blackwell 80, Lindcove, 73, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 72, Porterville 77, Delano 69
Record Temperatures: 101/40. Average Temperatures: 86/55
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2064 +471
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 72.0 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .00 season. or -.01. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or .00. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:56 am Sunset: 6:39 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:44
Yesterday’s Weather:
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 90 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 90 / 55 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 63 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 88 / 53 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1651 / 88 / 57 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 90 / 56 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1623 / 88 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 59 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, October 2/pm