October 3, 2018
Summary: A few locations north of Kern County recorded the first measurable rain of the rainfall season. Actually, you have to go back to April 16 to find the last day it actually rained on the valley floor. Most locations have recorded less than .05 so far, however Lindcove picked up .11. Heavy thunderstorms pounded the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Wishon Dam recorded .39. Doppler radar shows widely scattered light showers over the valley, mainly from Fresno County north, at this hour. Just to our west, however, along the central coast a wide swath of rain and even a few embedded thunderstorms was moving from south to north into western Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties. This precipitation is along the cold frontal section of the storm. By tonight, the center of circulation will slide southward and will be centered right near Vandenberg. That will, in effect, shove a cold front across the valley. This will provide our best chance for showers and even a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
The low will finally weaken Thursday and begin to open up into a trough of low pressure which will eventually cover most of the western United States while a large upper high builds just off shore. The chance of measurable rain will diminish Thursday morning with all activity ending by midday.
As the trough develops over the western U.S. Friday through Sunday, the winds aloft will become north/northwest, maintaining very pleasant autumn weather through the middle part of next week. In fact, models going out through the middle of the month are indicating near to even below average temperatures.
Of interest also is a couple of models are showing a tropical system trying to move up into southern California about the 13th. Why this has stirred my interest is that variations of this theme have shown up for three days in a row now with the system shown moving either into northern Baja or southern California. Currently, I consider this to be a very low chance of rain, but it does show an upper level low also, possibly moving into northern California which, theoretically, could draw that moisture into central California. In the meantime, though, expect dry weather from Thursday on.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Thursday morning with a chance of widely scattered showers this morning. Becoming more numerous this afternoon with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Showers likely tonight with a chance of thunderstorms, diminishing Thursday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday and on through Wednesday of next week.
Short Term:
Madera 79/61/78/53/79 | Reedley 80/62/78/53/79 | Dinuba 78/60/77/52/78 | |
Porterville 79/59/78/52/78 | Lindsay 78/61/78/51/78 | Delano 79/62/78/55/79 | |
Bakersfield 78/64/78/61/77 | Taft 78/65/78/61/80 | Arvin 77/62/78/58/78 | |
Lamont 78/63/77/59/77 | Pixley 79/60/78/55/79 | Tulare 77/59/77/51/78 | |
Woodlake 79/59/78/54/78 | Hanford 78/61/77/53/79 | Orosi 79/60/79/53/78 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Saturday
Mostly clear 52/80 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 50/78 |
Monday
Mostly clear 50/81 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 52/81 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 50/80 |
Two Week Outlook: October 10 through October 16: This model is showing a significant trough of low pressure over the western states and is also giving southern California at least a small chance of precipitation during this time frame. There will only be a minimal chance of rain this far north. This model would result in below average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be variable today and tonight to 10 to 15 MPH but with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly near showers and especially isolated thunderstorms. Winds Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. By Friday, winds will generally be light but will increase Saturday out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, generally along the west side.
Rain: Doppler radar at this hour is showing just a few light showers from mainly
Fresno County north. However, there is a great deal of precipitation over the Coast Range with some of this activity getting ready to move into western sides of Kern and Kings Counties. For today, expect scattered showers with even a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The low will be the nearest to our proximity tonight so showers will be likely. A nocturnal thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. The shower activity will wind down late tonight and for a time Thursday morning with dry weather Thursday afternoon and beyond.
Precipitation amounts will vary a great deal, ranging from just a few hundredths to upwards of a quarter of an inch, locally more is possible especially if thunderstorms do break out this afternoon and evening.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Humidity: Visalia: 50%/90% Bakersfield: 50%/90%
Actual Humidity October 2, 2018: Delano, 83%/36%, Porterville, 88%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10% tomorrow 40% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.24, Parlier NA, Blackwell 1.36, Lindcove 1.11, Arvin 1.38, Orange Cove 1.23, Porterville 1.02, Delano 1.15, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 72, Blackwell 80, Lindcove, 73, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 72, Porterville 78, Delano 70
Record Temperatures: 101/41. Average Temperatures: 85/54
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2075 +477
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 74.0 +5.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .01 season. or -.01. Month to Date: .01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.01. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:57 am Sunset: 6:38 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:44
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 89 / 66 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 87 / 65 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 65 / 0.04 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 87 / 66 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 89 / 68 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 86 / 63 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 88 / 67 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 89 / 64 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 88 / 69 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 81 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 12.50
MADERA T T N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 12.02
FRESNO 0.01 0.01 50 0.00 0 0.02 11.50
HANFORD 0.04 0.04 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 6.47
BISHOP 0.39 0.39 1950 0.00 0 0.02 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 13.95
Next report: Thursday, October 4