October 12, 2018
Summary: A rather interesting pattern has developed over the past 24 hours. A very weak upper low which yesterday at this time was moving into northern California is now stalling just off the central coast. This low, with the exception of satellite imagery, is pretty much invisible. However, I have been watching with great interest cloud cover banking up against the slope of the Sierra Nevada with cloud cover over the high deserts and into the Kern County mountains. The counterclockwise flow around this low now has the winds both at the surface and aloft out of the east which, of course, is an off shore flow.
Meanwhile, to our south, tropical storm Sergio has moved through central Baja, spreading precipitation up the Baja coast and into Arizona. Just about all the model information this morning shows a minimal amount of tropical moisture from Sergio being drawn northwestward out of the deserts and as far north as possibly the Kern County deserts. For now, high resolution models show the Kern County mountains remaining dry as well as the San Joaquin Valley. Still, this is a bit of a tricky situation and you will be updated if any changes occur as on occasion they can happen. For now, though, a dry forecast is warranted with pleasant autumn temperatures.
A large upper high is now stretching along the Pacific coast northward into the Gulf of Alaska. Over the weekend, the low off the central coast will move into southern California then eventually into southwestern Arizona Sunday. This will allow California to be situated on the eastern rim of the off shore high, creating a north/northeast flow aloft. Even though pressures will be rising over the weekend and beyond, that north/northeast flow will keep temperatures in check with readings leveling off into the mid 80s through next week.
The off shore flow may lower dew points enough to allow overnight temperatures to cool well down into the 40s next week as a very dry air mass will allow daytime warming but strong radiational cooling. The medium range forecast for late next week and the following week is for now quite benign with upper level high pressure essentially governing at least the western one-fourth of the nation, allowing for above average daytime temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday night but possibly occasionally partly cloudy at times this afternoon through Saturday night, especially in Kern County. Mostly clear Sunday and on through Friday of next week.
Short Term:
| Madera 80/49/84/51/84 | Reedley 79/49/83/50/84 | Dinuba 79/48/82/51/83 | |
| Porterville 80/49/84/51/85 | Lindsay 81/48/84/51/83 | Delano 80/51/84/53/85 | |
| Bakersfield 81/61/85/61/84 | Taft 80/62/84/62/84 | Arvin 81/57/84/58/84 | |
| Lamont 81/57/84/56/85 | Pixley 79/48/83/51/84 | Tulare 80/48/82/50/83 | |
| Woodlake 79/48/83/51/84 | Hanford 80/50/84/53/84 | Orosi 79/48/84/52/83 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 46/84 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 46/82 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 45/83 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 47/82 |
Friday
Mostly clear 48/82 |
Two Week Outlook: October 19 through October 25: Upper level high pressure will take over the eastern Pacific and western North America during this time frame. This will result in above average temperatures with little, if any, chance of precipitation.
October: This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California. The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially. We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.
October, November, December: It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception. There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.
Winds: Winds will generally be less than 10 MPH indefinitely.
Rain: Expect dry weather indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 35%/85% Bakersfield: 35%/60%
Actual Humidity October 11, 2018: Delano, 95%/46%, Porterville, 90%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.10, Parlier 0.98, Blackwell 1.17, Lindcove 0.89, Arvin 1.08, Orange Cove 1.03, Porterville 1.01, Delano 0.96, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 70, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 72, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 74, Delano 66
Record Temperatures: 95/39. Average Temperatures: 82/51
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2095 +467
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 67.9 +0.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.03 Month to Date: .10 -.03
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.06. Month to Date: .00 -.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:05 am Sunset: 6:25 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:21
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 77 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 75 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 76 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 74 / 57 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 74 / 52 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 74 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 74 / 51 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1644 / 71 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 753 0.00 0 0.17 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 6 0.00 0 0.16 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.12 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.12 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 77 0.00 0 0.13 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 57 0.00 0 0.07 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.06 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 400 0.00 0 0.10 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 479 0.00 0 0.14 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 21 0.00 0 0.14 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 292 0.00 0 0.12 13.95
Next report: Saturday, October 13