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Forecast

October 12, 2018/report

October 12, 2018

Summary:  A rather interesting pattern has developed over the past 24 hours.  A very weak upper low which yesterday at this time was moving into northern California is now stalling just off the central coast.  This low, with the exception of satellite imagery, is pretty much invisible.  However, I have been watching with great interest cloud cover banking up against the slope of the Sierra Nevada with cloud cover over the high deserts and into the Kern County mountains.  The counterclockwise flow around this low now has the winds both at the surface and aloft out of the east which, of course, is an off shore flow.

 

Meanwhile, to our south, tropical storm Sergio has moved through central Baja, spreading precipitation up the Baja coast and into Arizona.  Just about all the model information this  morning shows a minimal amount of tropical moisture from Sergio being drawn northwestward out of the deserts and as far north as possibly the Kern County deserts.  For now, high resolution  models show the Kern County mountains remaining dry as well as the San Joaquin Valley. Still, this is a bit of a tricky situation and you will be updated if any changes occur as on occasion they can happen.  For now, though, a dry forecast is warranted with pleasant autumn temperatures.

 

A large upper high is now stretching along the Pacific coast northward into the Gulf of Alaska.  Over the weekend, the low off the central coast will move into southern California then eventually into southwestern Arizona Sunday.  This will allow California to be situated on the eastern rim of the off shore high, creating a north/northeast flow aloft.  Even though pressures will be rising over the weekend and beyond, that north/northeast flow will  keep temperatures in check with readings leveling off into the mid 80s through next week.

 

The off shore flow may lower dew points enough to allow overnight temperatures to cool well down into the 40s next week as a very dry air mass will allow daytime warming but strong radiational cooling.  The medium range forecast for late next week and the following week is for now quite benign with upper level high pressure essentially governing at least the western one-fourth of the nation, allowing for above average daytime temperatures.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday night but possibly occasionally partly cloudy at times this afternoon through Saturday night, especially in Kern County.  Mostly clear Sunday and on through Friday of next week.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 80/49/84/51/84 Reedley 79/49/83/50/84 Dinuba 79/48/82/51/83
Porterville 80/49/84/51/85 Lindsay 81/48/84/51/83 Delano 80/51/84/53/85
Bakersfield 81/61/85/61/84 Taft 80/62/84/62/84 Arvin 81/57/84/58/84
Lamont 81/57/84/56/85 Pixley 79/48/83/51/84 Tulare 80/48/82/50/83
Woodlake 79/48/83/51/84 Hanford 80/50/84/53/84 Orosi 79/48/84/52/83

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

46/84

Tuesday

Mostly clear

46/82

Wednesday

Mostly clear

45/83

Thursday

Mostly clear

47/82

Friday

Mostly clear

48/82

 

Two Week Outlook:  October 19 through October 25:  Upper level high pressure will take over the eastern Pacific and western North America during this time frame.  This will result in above average temperatures with little, if any, chance of precipitation.

 

October:  This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California.  The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially.  We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.

 

October, November, December:  It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception.  There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.

 

Winds:  Winds will generally be less than 10 MPH indefinitely.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 35%/85%  Bakersfield: 35%/60%

Actual Humidity October 11, 2018: Delano, 95%/46%, Porterville, 90%/40%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%  tomorrow 80%  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.10, Parlier 0.98, Blackwell 1.17, Lindcove 0.89, Arvin 1.08, Orange Cove 1.03, Porterville 1.01, Delano 0.96,   Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 70, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 72, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 74, Delano 66

 

Record Temperatures: 95/39. Average Temperatures: 82/51

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2095 +467

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for October so far: 67.9 +0.7

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: .10 season. or -0.03  Month to Date: .10 -.03

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  .00, or -.06.  Month to Date: .00 -.06

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:05 am  Sunset: 6:25 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:21

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  77 /  52 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  74 /  56 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  75 /  50 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  76 /  51 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  74 /  57 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  74 /  52 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1653 /  74 /  55 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  74 /  51 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1644 /  71 /  54 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /   M /  53 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    1.28   753    0.00     0     0.17    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.01     6    0.00     0     0.16    13.11

MERCED                        0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.12    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.12    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.10    77    0.00     0     0.13    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.04    57    0.00     0     0.07    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.06     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.40   400    0.00     0     0.10     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.67   479    0.00     0     0.14    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.03    21    0.00     0     0.14    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.35   292    0.00     0     0.12    13.95

 

Next report:  Saturday, October 13