October 13, 2018
Summary: A weak upper low is centered just to the west of Santa Barbara this morning. This interesting little feature has dragged up tropical moisture along its eastern flank. It then shoots it westward through the high desert. Eventually it’s making its way into the LA basIn. Doppler radar is showing locally heavy showers and thunderstorms over western Riverside and San Bernardino Counties with light showers as far north as extreme southeast Kern County. Cloud cover from this little system has moved as far north as Kings and Tulare Counties. Not to fret, however, as this low will be drifting slowly southward to a position near San Diego by this time tomorrow, bringing its precipitation with it. After today, skies will be generally clear through the remainder of the weekend. It appears there will be nothing to interfere with clear skies through next week.
In the overall picture, a large high covers the eastern Pacific Ocean with a ridge jutting northeastward into British Columbia. This will create a northeast flow aloft beginning late Sunday. This will also allow a new, weak upper low to move southward through the Great Basin and eventually into the Desert Southwest. A northeasterly flow will continue for much of next week with gusty winds over the high Sierra and Santa Anas getting cranked up over southern California, which is typical for this time of year.
Typically, these off shore flows don’t disturb the valley much, but they do mix down drier air to the valley floor, allowing a wider spread between daytime highs and overnight lows. So, even though readings this coming week will warm into the low to mid 80s, overnight lows over rural locations of the valley will dip into the low to mid 40s in many areas.
In the medium term, upper level high pressure still dominates in one way, shape, or form over the west coast, blocking any potential storms. There may be a tropical cyclone moving into southern Baja sometime next week, but for now it appears the valley will again be unscathed.
Forecast: Partly cloudy this morning south of roughly a Hanford/Visalia line, otherwise it will be mostly clear. Mostly clear this afternoon through Wednesday. Mostly clear skies will continue Wednesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 83/48/82/45/81 | Reedley 84/48/82/46/80 | Dinuba 82/46/81/45/81 | |
Porterville 84/47/82/45/80 | Lindsay 83/47/82/44/80 | Delano 83/49/82/47/81 | |
Bakersfield 84/56/83/54/81 | Taft 83/60/82/59/80 | Arvin 84/52/82/52/81 | |
Lamont 83/55/83/54/82 | Pixley 83/48/83/46/81 | Tulare 82/46/81/44/80 | |
Woodlake 83/48/82/45/81` | Hanford 84/49/82/46/81 | Orosi 83/48/82/45/80 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Tuesday
Mostly clear 44/81 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 45/81 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 46/83 |
Friday
Mostly clear 46/81 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 47/83 |
Two Week Outlook: October 19 through October 25: Upper level high pressure will take over the eastern Pacific and western North America during this time frame. This will result in above average temperatures with little, if any, chance of precipitation.
October: This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California. The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially. We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.
October, November, December: It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception. There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.
Winds: Winds will generally be less than 10 MPH indefinitely.
Rain: Expect dry weather indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/85% Bakersfield: 25%/65%
Actual Humidity October 12, 2018: Delano, 100%/40%, Porterville, 92%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.12, Parlier 0.98, Blackwell 1.18, Lindcove 0.94, Arvin 1.08, Orange Cove 1.06, Porterville 1.01, Delano 0.95, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 70, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 71, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 73, Delano 65
Record Temperatures: 95/40. Average Temperatures: 81/51
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2096 +466
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 67.8 +0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.05 Month to Date: .10 -.05
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.06. Month to Date: .00 -.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:05 am Sunset: 6:24 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 80 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 81 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 83 / 49 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 79 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 80 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 80 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1641 / 77 / 59 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 82 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 674 0.00 0 0.19 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 6 0.00 0 0.18 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.14 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.14 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 67 0.00 0 0.15 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 44 0.00 0 0.09 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.06 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 364 0.00 0 0.11 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 419 0.00 0 0.16 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 19 0.00 0 0.16 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 269 0.00 0 0.13 13.95
Next report: Monday, October 15