Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

October 13, 2018/report

October 13, 2018

Summary:  A weak upper low is centered just to the west of Santa Barbara this morning.  This interesting little feature has dragged up tropical moisture along its eastern flank.  It then shoots it westward through the high desert.  Eventually it’s making its way into the LA basIn.  Doppler radar is showing locally heavy showers and thunderstorms over western Riverside and San Bernardino Counties with light showers as far north as extreme southeast Kern County.  Cloud cover from this little system has moved as far north as Kings and Tulare Counties.  Not to fret, however, as this low will be drifting slowly southward to a position near San Diego by this time tomorrow, bringing its precipitation with it.  After today, skies will be generally clear through the remainder of the weekend.  It appears there will be nothing to interfere with clear skies through next week.

 

In the overall picture, a large high covers the eastern Pacific Ocean with a ridge jutting northeastward into British Columbia.  This will create a northeast flow aloft beginning late Sunday.  This will also allow a new, weak upper low to move southward through the Great Basin and eventually into the Desert Southwest.  A northeasterly flow will continue for much of next week with gusty winds over the high Sierra and Santa Anas getting cranked up over southern California, which is typical for this time of year.

 

Typically, these off shore flows don’t disturb the valley much, but they do mix down drier air to the valley floor, allowing a wider spread between daytime highs and overnight lows.  So, even though readings this coming week will warm into the low to mid 80s, overnight lows over rural locations of the valley will dip into the low to mid 40s in many areas.

 

In the medium term, upper level  high pressure still dominates in one way, shape, or form over the west coast, blocking any potential storms.  There may be a tropical cyclone moving into southern Baja sometime  next week, but for now it appears the valley will again be unscathed.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy this morning south of roughly a Hanford/Visalia line, otherwise it will be mostly clear.  Mostly clear this afternoon through Wednesday.  Mostly clear skies will continue Wednesday night through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 83/48/82/45/81 Reedley 84/48/82/46/80 Dinuba 82/46/81/45/81
Porterville 84/47/82/45/80 Lindsay 83/47/82/44/80 Delano 83/49/82/47/81
Bakersfield 84/56/83/54/81 Taft 83/60/82/59/80 Arvin 84/52/82/52/81
Lamont 83/55/83/54/82 Pixley 83/48/83/46/81 Tulare 82/46/81/44/80
Woodlake 83/48/82/45/81` Hanford 84/49/82/46/81 Orosi 83/48/82/45/80

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

44/81

Wednesday

Mostly clear

45/81

Thursday

Mostly clear

46/83

Friday

Mostly clear

46/81

Saturday

Mostly clear

47/83

 

Two Week Outlook:  October 19 through October 25:  Upper level high pressure will take over the eastern Pacific and western North America during this time frame.  This will result in above average temperatures with little, if any, chance of precipitation.

 

October:  This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California.  The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially.  We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.

 

October, November, December:  It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception.  There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.

 

Winds:  Winds will generally be less than 10 MPH indefinitely.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 30%/85%  Bakersfield: 25%/65%

Actual Humidity October 12, 2018: Delano, 100%/40%, Porterville, 92%/32%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.12, Parlier 0.98, Blackwell 1.18, Lindcove 0.94, Arvin 1.08, Orange Cove 1.06, Porterville 1.01, Delano 0.95,   Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 70, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 71, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 73, Delano 65

 

Record Temperatures: 95/40. Average Temperatures: 81/51

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2096 +466

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for October so far: 67.8 +0.6

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: .10 season. or -0.05  Month to Date: .10 -.05

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  .00, or -.06.  Month to Date: .00 -.06

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:05 am  Sunset: 6:24 pm. Hours of Daylight:  11:20

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  84 /  51 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  80 /  56 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  81 /  51 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  83 /  49 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  79 /  56 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  79 /  50 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1655 /  80 /  52 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  80 /  50 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1641 /  77 /  59 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  82 /  54 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    1.28   674    0.00     0     0.19    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.01     6    0.00     0     0.18    13.11

MERCED                        0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.14    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.14    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.10    67    0.00     0     0.15    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.04    44    0.00     0     0.09    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.06     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.40   364    0.00     0     0.11     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.67   419    0.00     0     0.16    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.03    19    0.00     0     0.16    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.35   269    0.00     0     0.13    13.95

 

Next report:  Monday, October 15