October 15, 2018
Summary: High pressure aloft covers the eastern Pacific Ocean just off shore with a ridge extending northeastward into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. This is creating a strong northeasterly flow aloft. A weak low is currently moving southward through the Great Basin and is enhancing the off shore flow at the surface. Strong, gusty winds out of the east or northeast are whistling across the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. These Santa Ana type winds have found their way down to the valley floor in Kern County. The last report out of Meadows Field indicated winds were out of the southeast gusting to 29 MPH with 25 MPH reported at Lamont with gusts to 42 MPH at the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine.
The temperature in Bakersfield shot up to 68 degrees with a dew point of only 12 while north of Kern County, most ag locations are well down into the 40s.
These winds, according to high resolution models, are possible today but should begin to die off this evening. The low will sink southward over Arizona Tuesday and Wednesday as the high pressure system remains anchored in basically the same position with that ridge into the Pacific Northwest for much of the week. This will effectively maintain that northeast flow aloft.
Dew points will lower throughout the valley due to that very dry air above the valley floor mixing down. The dry air is already in place, of course, in Kern County where downslope winds have zapped the moisture in the atmosphere. Overnight lows will be quite chilly with coldest locations in the traditional low spots down at least into the upper 30s the next few nights. Temperature recover during the day will allow temperatures to warm to near seasonal values, so actually this will be a gorgeous weather week.
A new low is predicted to form over southern California this weekend. Some models show the counterclockwise circulation around the low picking up tropical moisture and moving it into southern California for a small chance of showers. For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry for the valley as there is not enough evidence yet that any of this moisture will move into central California, but it is certainly something to watch.
In the medium term, especially from midweek next week and beyond, an active weather pattern will set up across the Pacific with storms moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. How far south the precipitation line will progress is unclear at this time. We’ll continue to go with a dry forecast, but for the first time this fall the storm track is actually in view.
Forecast: Clear skies through Friday. Expect gusty winds in Kern County, especially this morning. Mostly clear Friday night through Saturday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 80/42/80/42/81 | Reedley 79/41/80/42/81 | Dinuba 79/39/80/39/82 | |
| Porterville 80/41/80/42/82 | Lindsay 80/40/80/41/81 | Delano 81/43/80/43/82 | |
| Bakersfield 83/50/81/52/82 | Taft 80/55/80/52/82 | Arvin 85/55/80/44/82 | |
| Lamont 84/55/80/48/82 | Pixley 81/41/81/42/82 | Tulare 79/40/80/39/81 | |
| Woodlake 80/39/80/38/82 | Hanford 81/42/80/42/82 | Orosi 79/39/80/39/81 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 44/81 |
Friday
Mostly clear 43/81 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 46/83 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 49/82 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 53/81 |
Two Week Outlook: October 22 through October 28: This model begins to ratchet up the action over the eastern Pacific Ocean with the storm track moving into the Pacific Northwest and possibly northern California. For now, it appears most, if not all, the precipitation will remain north of our region. However, we will definitely be monitoring this. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
October: This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California. The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially. We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.
October, November, December: It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception. There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.
Winds: Winds north of Kern County will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday. In Kern County, strong, gusty southeasterly winds can be expected, especially this morning, from 15 to 30 MPH with local gusts to 40 MPH particularly near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. These winds will diminish by this evening. Winds later tonight through Thursday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 20s to the mid 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/85% Bakersfield: 15%/50%
Actual Humidity October 14, 2018: Delano, 93%/28%, Porterville, 91%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.09, Parlier 0.96, Blackwell 1.17, Lindcove 0.93, Arvin 1.12, Orange Cove 1.05, Porterville 0.99, Delano 0.95, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 69, Blackwell 76, Lindcove, 71, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 67, Porterville 73, Delano 65
Record Temperatures: 99/36. Average Temperatures: 80/50
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2101 +467
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 67.7 +0.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.08 Month to Date: .10 -.08
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.08. Month to Date: .00 -.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:07 am Sunset: 6:21 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:14
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 82 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 83 / 49 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 84 / 57 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 51 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 81 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 84 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 82 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 533 0.00 0 0.24 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 5 0.00 0 0.22 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.19 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 56 0.00 0 0.18 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 33 0.00 0 0.12 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.08 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 333 0.00 0 0.12 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 353 0.00 0 0.19 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 16 0.00 0 0.19 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 219 0.00 0 0.16 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, October 16