October 16, 2018
Summary: The low pressure system which yesterday was moving southerly through the Great Basin is now centered over western Arizona. This has relaxed the off shore flow but by no means has ended the general pattern of winds blowing from the land towards the sea. A ridge of high pressure is just off shore and extends north/northeast into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. This has created a northeasterly flow aloft which is an extremely dry flow. It will maintain generally clear skies with slightly above average temperatures during the day but, with relatively low dew points, overnight lows will fall well down into the 40s. A few river bottoms this morning bottomed out into the upper 30s.
Where the pattern gets interesting is for this coming weekend. The low which currently resides over Arizona will retrograde into southern California later this week and will eventually park just off the southern California coast. More models this morning seem to be picking up on the idea of this system gathering up subtropical moisture and rotating it in from the southeast with the potential for showers and thunderstorms over southern California as far north as the Kern County mountains. This is close enough to add a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the forecast for Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. The chance of precipitation at any given location appears very low but worth mentioning.
Look for dry conditions Monday through Friday of next week as a blocking ridge remains along the west coast with marginally above average temperatures.
Forecast: Clear skies through Friday with warm afternoons and cool mornings. Mostly clear Friday night. Becoming partly cloudy Saturday with variable cloudiness Saturday night through Monday with a slight chance of showers, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening. Mostly clear Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 80/42/81/45/83 | Reedley 81/43/82/44/83 | Dinuba 80/41/82/44/82 | |
| Porterville 81/44/83/46/83 | Lindsay 80/43/82/45/83 | Delano 81/45/82/46/83 | |
| Bakersfield 82/53/83/54/83 | Taft 81/56/83/56/83 | Arvin 83/46/83/47/83 | |
| Lamont 82/48/83/50/83 | Pixley 80/43/82/46/83 | Tulare 80/42/81/45/83 | |
| Woodlake 80/43/82/45/83 | Hanford 81/44/82/47/83 | Orosi 80/43/82/46/82 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 48/83 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 53/80 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 56/82 |
Monday
AM showers possible 56/80 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 50/80 |
Two Week Outlook: October 22 through October 28: This model begins to ratchet up the action over the eastern Pacific Ocean with the storm track moving into the Pacific Northwest and possibly northern California. For now, it appears most, if not all, the precipitation will remain north of our region. However, we will definitely be monitoring this. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
October: This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California. The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially. We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.
October, November, December: It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception. There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.
Winds: Expect winds of no more than 10 MPH for the foreseeable future.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Friday night. More models this morning are beginning to hint at a low pressure system positioning off the southern California coast. Models also indicate the counterclockwise circulation around this feature may move subtropical moisture over southern California for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms as far north as the Kern County mountains. Since models seem to want to nudge the potential rain line further north, I do see it’s possible a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms could occur above that line from later Saturday afternoon through early Monday. After that, the low is projected to move to the southwest, ending the chance of rain. I must emphasize the chance of precipitation is very low at this point, but there is enough evidence to add the slight chance to the forecast. After Monday, expect another period of dry weather.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/85% Bakersfield: 15%/50%
Actual Humidity October 15, 2018: Delano, 93%/28%, Porterville, 91%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.09, Parlier 0.96, Blackwell 1.17, Lindcove 0.93, Arvin 1.12, Orange Cove 1.05, Porterville 0.99, Delano 0.95, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 69, Blackwell 76, Lindcove, 71, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 67, Porterville 73, Delano 65
Record Temperatures: 96/36. Average Temperatures: 80/50
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2101 +466
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 67.4 +0.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.10 Month to Date: .10 -.10
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.09. Month to Date: .00 -.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:08 am Sunset: 6:20 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:13
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 82 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 80 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 81 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 81 / 60 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1657 / 81 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 80 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 81 / 55 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 79 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 492 0.00 0 0.26 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 4 0.00 0 0.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.21 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.21 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 50 0.00 0 0.20 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 31 0.00 0 0.13 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.09 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 308 0.00 0 0.13 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 319 0.00 0 0.21 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 14 0.00 0 0.21 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 194 0.00 0 0.18 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, October 17