October 20, 2018
Summary: A weak upper low is centered just off the southern California coast this morning. The only evidence of its existence is on water vapor satellite imagery where a counterclockwise circulation pattern shows up nicely. Some models remain adamant that this system will pick up a minimal amount of moisture from the Desert Southwest and will rotate it in from the southeast. The dynamics of this system are such that I feel no rain will fall on the valley floor, but there will be a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the high Sierra, especially Sunday and Monday afternoons and evenings. There’s even a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the Tehachapi Mountains with possibly some occasional clouds over the valley floor.
The low will begin to move northeastward across central California late Sunday and early Monday. As soon as that occurs, the southeast flow will end and what little moisture field this system has will shift into the Great Basin.
Upper level high pressure will remain anchored across the west coast with a ridge extending into the Pacific Northwest, maintaining a weak off shore flow. In fact, the marine layer at Monterey this morning was only 200 feet deep.
Later next week, the high will flatten out, allowing the storm track to migrate into the Pacific Northwest with generally a west/northwest flow over California. For now, it appears no precipitation is on the horizon as any active weather will remain well to our north.
Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight. Mostly clear Sunday through Monday but with occasional mid and high level clouds. Mostly clear skies will continue Monday through next Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 85/47/84/47/81 | Reedley 86/48/85/46/81 | Dinuba 83/46/83/45/81 | |
| Porterville 86/48/85/47/82 | Lindsay 85/46/84/46/81 | Delano 86/49/85/49/82 | |
| Bakersfield 87/61/85/58/83 | Taft 86/63/85/61/81 | Arvin 87/53/85/53/83 | |
| Lamont 87/56/85/54/83 | Pixley 85/50/84/49/82 | Tulare 84/48/84/47/81 | |
| Woodlake 85/47/84/47/81 | Hanford 86/50/84/48/82 | Orosi 84/47/84/46/81 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 47/78 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 47/80 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 48/79 |
Friday
Mostly clear 50/78 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 51/81 |
Two Week Outlook: October 26 through November 1: This model is adamant about a dry forecast for most of the western United States, including California. A big ridge will reside over the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the U.S. This will also result in above average temperatures.
October: This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California. The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially. We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.
October, November, December: It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception. There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.
Winds: Expect winds of no more than 10 MPH for the foreseeable future.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90% Bakersfield: 20%/60%
Actual Humidity October 19, 2018: Delano, 87%/26%, Porterville, 88%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.09, Parlier 0.93, Blackwell 1.14, Lindcove 0.91, Arvin 1.15, Orange Cove 1.01, Porterville 0.94, Delano 0.92 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 67, Blackwell 74, Lindcove, 69, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 70, Delano 63
Record Temperatures: 94/35. Average Temperatures: 78/49
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2101 +462
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 66.7 +0.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.19 Month to Date: .10 -.19
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.13. Month to Date: .00 -.12
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 6:14 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:03
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 86 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 54 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 84 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 46 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 83 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 84 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 82 / 59 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 83 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 346 T 0 0.37 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 3 0.00 0 0.33 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.31 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.33 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 34 0.00 0 0.29 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 21 0.00 0 0.19 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.13 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 235 0.00 0 0.17 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 231 0.00 0 0.29 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 10 T 0 0.29 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 135 T 0 0.26 13.95