October 23, 2018
Summary: Low pressure is centered over Utah this morning. That, combined with upper level high pressure off shore, has turned surface winds on shore. The marine layer at Monterey this morning has suddenly deepened to 2,800 feet. The onshore flow, however, is weak so the amount of modified sea breeze moving into the valley is weak, as well. Winds through Pacheco Pass were gusting to 23 MPH while winds at the Delta were sustained at 17. Still, there should be enough for a minor cooling trend with most locations not hitting 80 this afternoon. In the meantime, another low center is off the northern coast of Baja, spreading high clouds over the southern one-fourth of California, but they won’t impact the valley.
A cold front is approaching the coast of the Pacific Northwest and will weaken the high over the next 48 hours. However, as the front moves into northern California, it will be dead on arrival and will also be followed by a ridge of upper level high pressure from Friday through Sunday, allowing temperatures during the heat of the afternoon to rise into the mid 80s…about ten degrees above seasonal values.
That will be short lived, however, as the high flattens out early next week with the storm track again moving into the Pacific Northwest. Any active weather will, though, remain well to our north with perhaps occasional cloudiness. Temperatures will fall down into the low to mid 70s by Monday, but more especially Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, there is no pattern projected that would bring rain back to central California for at least the next week to ten days.
Forecast: Mostly clear but hazy skies through Friday. Mostly clear and hazy skies will continue Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/43/79/44/81 | Reedley 78/44/79/45/80 | Dinuba 77/42/78/43/79 | |
| Porterville 79/44/79/45/80 | Lindsay 79/42/80/44/79 | Delano 79/46/80/48/81 | |
| Bakersfield 80/53/80/54/81 | Taft 78/57/80/58/80 | Arvin 81/52/81/51/80 | |
| Lamont 79/51/80/51/80 | Pixley 78/46/80/47/81 | Tulare 77/43/78/45/79 | |
| Woodlake 78/43/79/44/80 | Hanford 79/44/79/45/79 | Orosi 78/44/79/45/80 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 48/84 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 49/85 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 46/83 |
Monday
Mostly clear 50/78 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 45/74 |
Two Week Outlook: October 26 through November 1: This model is adamant about a dry forecast for most of the western United States, including California. A big ridge will reside over the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the U.S. This will also result in above average temperatures.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 15 MPH through at least Friday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 35%/90% Bakersfield: 30%/65%
Actual Humidity October 22, 2018: Delano, 93%/29%, Porterville, 82%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.04, Parlier 0.89, Blackwell 1.05, Lindcove 0.87, Arvin 1.07, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 0.90, Delano 0.90 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 66, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, 68, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 69, Delano 62
Record Temperatures: 90/35. Average Temperatures: 76/47
Heating Degree Days this Season: 9 -44
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 66.5 +1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.26 Month to Date: .10 -.26
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.16. Month to Date: .00 -.16
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:15 am Sunset: 6:11 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 54 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 82 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 83 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 83 / 57 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 82 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 83 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 82 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 80 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 278 0.12 26 0.46 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 3 0.12 30 0.40 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 38 0.39 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 19 0.42 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 28 0.09 25 0.36 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 16 0.06 24 0.25 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.16 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 211 0.00 0 0.19 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 191 0.13 37 0.35 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 9 0.08 23 0.35 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 109 0.03 9 0.32 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, October 24